Apple to Own 40 Pct of Smartphone Market?

A new forecast from UK market analysis firm says Apple might account for 40 percent of the world's smartphone market by 2013...knocking Nokia out of the top slot.

A new research report from UK market analysis firm Generator Research forecasts that Apple’s nascent smartphone business could get big—really big. According to the report, Apple smartphones could account for as much as 40 percent of the global smartphone market by the year 2013…and that would be enough to take over the top slot from Finland’s Nokia.

“Our analysis is that the iPhone and App Store constitute a vertical platform for the delivery of advanced mobile services that will be developed in a similar manner to how Apple developed its digital music platform, which included the iPod and the iTunes Music Store,” said Generator’s head of research Andrew Sheehy, in a statement. “The new rule #1 is that you need a fully-integrated service development platform that has a rich API which is open to third party developers on favorable commercial terms. Right now, Apple has the best platform and the best-looking forward roadmap.”

Generator Research also concludes that Apple is well-positioned to push the iPhone into a very fast-growth phase, even with a souring world economy. As a company, Apple has more than $25 billion in the bank and earns gross margins of about 33 percent—in other words, Apple is capable of pouncing on the phone market even as competitors like are scaling back on their product development and marketing efforts in order to weather the current economic climate.

Generator Research suggests Apple could capture a substantial share of the worldwide smartphone market at the expense of today’s major players…even going so far as to suggest Nokia might only account for 20 percent of the market by the year 2013.