Ericsson Predicts Wi-Fi’s Days are Numbered

Ericsson's chief marketing officer has predicted Wi-Fi hotspots are doomed in the same way phone booths are vanishing from the landscape. What gives?

Speaking at the European Computer Audit, Control and Security Conference in Stockholm, Ericsson’s chief marketing officer Johan Bergendahl predicted the days of Wi-Fi hotspots are numbered as mobile broadband technologies become consumers’ preferred method for accessing information and the Internet. Bergendahl noted mobile broadband is growing faster in Europe than cell phones or traditional phone service ever did, and likened the current proliferation of Wi-Fi hotspots to phone booths—things that used to be ubiquitous on every corner, but are a rare sight nowadays.

Bergendahl’s argument is essentially that as more people rely on mobile broadband services, Wi-Fi hotspots at places like Starbucks and McDonalds will no longer be necessary: users will be able to tap into whatever data and Internet services they need using 3G and 4G technology without having to rely on fixed-location Wi-Fi services.

Bergendahl’s assertion is has drawn considerable criticism from both the wireless and mobile industries. Some argue that while mobile broadband rollouts are underway in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, usage hasn’t grown fast enough for carriers to implement the substantial amounts of bandwidth that would be required if vast swaths of the population were to start relying on mobile broadband for more intensive uses. Similarly, coverage areas for mobile broadband services remain spotty even in highly developed areas: the room in Stockholm where Bergendahl spoke, for instance, had no 3G coverage—although Bergendahl confessed he believes hotels sometimes block access in order to get customers to purchase in-house broadband solutions.

LIkewise, costs for mobile broadband services still put them well beyond the reach of typical consumers. And even in Europe, where mobile broadband prices have dropped considerably, international roaming fees can be outrageous: users may have relatively cheap mobile broadband close to home, but an hour away, they may be paying through the nose.

Mobile industry watchers have also pointed out that mobile network operators are not particularly inclined to incur the costs of upgrading their entire operations to handle large numbers of broadband users, whereas adding Wi-Fi broadband capabilities to devices enables providers to make inexpensive, reliable broadband available at locations (coffee shops, book stores, airports, etc.) where users are most likely to need and/or consume considerable amounts of bandwidth on their mobile devices. Users don’t generally need large amounts of bandwidth while driving or traveling, but are more likely to tap into networks at their regular haunts or once they reach their destinations.

In the meantime, the humble author will note, if he leans just a little to his left, he can still see not one, not two, but three public pay phones from the vantage point of his keyboard.