Although Microsoft has implemented some creative advertising strategies when it comes to its Surface tablet, such as the guerrilla-style wall art found in New York City, sales of the device are off to a slow start. On Wednesday morning, Boston-based brokerage firm Detwiler Fenton said in a research note that Microsoft is projected to sell less than one million Surface tablets for the December quarter. Detwiler referred to the Windows-maker’s strategy as “in disarray,” according to Forbes.
The firm does, however, expect that Surface sales should improve in the second half of 2013 as Microsoft improves its hardware and distribution. According to Detwiler, a lack of distribution is the largest hurdle standing in the product’s way. In fact, the firm referred to poor exposure at major electronics retailers such as Best Buy as “severely depressing sales.” The only way to purchase the Surface is through Microsoft’s website or through its small chain of retail locations.
Combined with mixed reviews and a somewhat hefty price tag this lack of exposure has held Microsoft back from reaching projected estimates of between 1 million and 2 million Surface sales. The long-time PC software maker is hitting about half of that number, as Detwiler estimates that sales are dipping into the 500,000 – 600,000 range. The upcoming Surface Pro, which will be released in early 2013, is expected to reach between 2 and 3 million in sales.
While sales of Microsoft’s first ever self-branded tablet may be looking slim, the company is succeeding in other sectors of its re-branded Windows devices. Windows 8 laptops are far outselling the Surface RT, Detwiler acknowledges. Windows Phone 8 devices are also off to a “relatively strong start” on AT&T’s network, according to the firm.
Still, Microsoft and its OEM partners are “struggling to gain traction” at Verizon. This could be attributed to a lack of interest in Nokia’s Lumia 822 and HTC’s Windows Phone 8X. Nokia’s Lumia 920 appears to be the flagship product of that brand, but it’s currently exclusive to AT&T and could remain that way for a while. As for HTC, the firm noted that its Android-based DNA has proved to be an easier sell than its Windows-based device.
Detwiler also noted that Microsoft might have to push its Surface brand into the mobile market to achieve more success, hinting that a Surface phone could be what Microsoft needs.
“MSFT needs to go into 2013 with some momentum,” Detwiler said. “And while sales are obviously headed in the right direction, we’re skeptical they are going to have much of an impact.”
Not surprised. A coworker has one and it feels like a cheap, plasticky iPad knock-off. It runs ok, but isn’t that fast or very functional as a pseudo tablet. It’s like the worst of both worlds.
Here’s how I know you never used a Surface before. There’s no plastic used on the Surface at all. In fact, the vaporized magnesium casing gives the Surface a much more solid, cool feel to it than the simple brushed aluminum of the iPad. The feel of the Surface was one of the much touted features of the Surface. In fact, the iPad’s brushed aluminum is a relatively cheaper material than the first of its kind vaporized magnesium of the Surface. The main criticisms of the Surface were just on the software. Also, the Surface physically can’t feel like an iPad knock off because its physical dimensions are not only different but it was designed for best use in landscape mode. The iPad was designed for the exact opposite. Therefore, physically, the feel of holding both tables will have a huge vast difference.
You clearly havent even held the surface. I have a surface and my Mother-In-Law also bought one after she played with mine. This device has the best feel to the touch even before turning it on. The vapourMg construction is very precise and smooth to the touch, its hard yet does not feel hard, and is cool (temprature wise) while holding. None of the aluminium roughness. Go to a microsoft store and caress it before you start complaining about how it feels. In terms of performance its amazing. Thats all I can say. Love the minesweeper game on it. Played until my wife complained. Cant keep my hands of this device.
I also love the touch cover. Gives an amazing typing speed and accuracy. Love it Love it Love it
You either own stock in Microsoft or have an @microsoft.com email address. Read my post, I have used the Surface. However, I admit I didn’t “caress” it. You should really tone down your rhetoric so your intentions aren’t so blatantly obvious. lol
You must probably own Apple stock then. GENERALKIDD is right, the main criticism has never been the build, in fact that has been the selling point. It appears Apple could sell you a brick and you’d still be swooning over it. Give credit when its due.
Microsoft has already cut its order into half.
The rumor has it that disastrous Surface launch is forcing the insiders to accelerate plans for Xbox tablet that will replace Surface.
If that’s true, Surface will join the elite microsoft products like Zune, WP7 and Kin.
Even if the Surface is quickly replaced by something else, it won’t end up like the Zune or Kin. That’s because it runs Windows RT which will soon be a widely distributed OS. Meaning as long as other OEM’s continue to make Windows RT tablet devices, then the Surface automatically has all the support it needs. The Zune and Kin did not have app stores that were open to developers which is why once Microsoft cut support, those devices wouldn’t go any further. But Windows RT and subsequently Surface is different.
Also, with the Surface Pro, it doesn’t need any support from Microsoft. It runs full Windows 8 Pro. Even if you’re the only person in the world that buys a Surface Pro and Microsoft discontinues it the next day, it’ll still be a perfectly good tablet that has access to and can run billions of apps that span back to the 1990′s. Not even Apple can claim that the iPad has access to billions of apps.
Any tablet running Windows 8 automatically inherits the entire legacy Windows library which is massive and beats the Android and iOS app stores combined. That’s why the Surface Pro will be a great product regardless of its sales or launch figures.
First off Windows 8 runs applications that are of recent origin. This legacy support is just as good as any other release of Windows, so much so, that if it ran okay on XP, then it will most likely run okay on Windows 8 (unless you’re using a 64-bit build and then its hit-or-miss, which most Pro tablets will be 64-bit builds so even that last statement is a stretch but we’ll just ignore it it for now.)
Of course, you’ll be using legacy applications on a device for which they weren’t made for, namely your device is missing a mouse and keyboard, which you can add back but then you’re tied down and the surface pro doesn’t have the mobility that it once had.
Finally, I assure you that there are *not* a billion some odd Windows applications that can run on Windows 8. Billion would be including the MS-DOS days as being able to run on Windows 8. Maybe you should rethink your order of magnitude. However, none of that is the point. The number of applications is just some figure app stores like to peddle around to make it sound like their awesome. Even if an app store have forty trillion apps, that does not make then any more valuable if 80% of those are some sort of Bejeweled clone.
Typically there is a set of core apps that many people want to see. Each platform hits those marks to some degree. Obviously, the Apple and Android platform have more of the apps that people want but Microsoft’s app store is quickly getting those apps as well. The problem is that potential buyers have already bought into another ecosystem. That will hurt adoption rates on the RT devices unless Microsoft provides some reason why the RT ecosystem is better than all the rest, which they’ve done a truly horrible job at thus far. (Dancing people on a college campus isn’t convincing people, hey our RT platform is awesome. In fact it’s a pretty annoying commercial. The little girl painting is a slightly better one, but then that’s not for Surface.)
The Surface Pro, if and when it does come out will be the nail in the coffin for Windows RT. Microsoft’s ARM code quality is pretty horrific and shows that they really haven’t fully understood the platform. That lack of understanding shows in their RT product’s quality. Cores are constantly being tasked heavily, poor redraw to the frame buffer, complex operations on simple capacitance gestures, and pretty poor I/O rates all show that the compiler used for RT is first generation.
I wouldn’t hold the performance issues against RT, since every platform has had started with very poor ARM compilers, but I do because Android and Apple have such a mature platform that for the level of catch-up the Microsoft has to play, it is ridiculous to expect consumers to pay the amount being requested for a surface. There is simply no way a surface is anywhere near worth the amount Microsoft is requesting.
RT altogether is a doomed platform, in my opinion. Not just for the reasons I’ve stated, but in addition, Microsoft has a history of ditching entire platforms if they fail to make headway. Look at Silverlight as an example. If RT continues at the snails pace that it is taking. Microsoft will be the one who eventually kills it and moves on to the RT 2.0 platform which leaves the RT 1.0 people in the dust. In short Microsoft is one of its worst enemies and that has been historically shown time and time again.
Windows 8 on the Surface Pro does still inherit all apps from the MS-DOS days. Even the 64-bit editions of Windows 8 can still run DOS apps as long as you have some kind of emulation layer. And even if you exclude MS-DOS apps, there’s most definitely still over a billion apps out there for the entire Windows platform. Think about it, those apps include every single possible piece of software that runs on Windows. This ranges from games, productivity, tools, enterprise, and more. How many open source or hobbyist apps were written for Windows since the 1990′s? In fact, 1 billion is probably underestimating the size of the entire Windows software library since its inception. Technically, Windows can also inherit almost the entire Android app store through emulation. Essentially, Windows is one of the most versatile and open platforms in terms of software development which is why it definitely has a lot of software available for it and not all of it are cheap clones of pre-existing software like on Android and iOS.
I think the fact that Windows 8 was ported to the ARM platform is a pretty incredible thing. Look at the system requirements for Windows 8. The minimum requirements for Windows 8 to run smoothly are way above anything that the ARM platform can currently handle. As you know, ARM chips are very weak and low power compared to Intel x86 chips. Even Windows 95 runs very slowly when emulated on a high-end ARM Android tablet.
Sure Windows RT could be better, but where it’s at right now is pretty amazing. The fate of Windows RT can only be determined by Intel’s success in the mobile market. Windows RT only exists because ARM chips are popular in mobile low power devices. But if Intel can beat the performance of ARM chips while matching power consumption, then they could potentially replace ARM in mobile devices and when that happens, Windows RT will become obsolete and unnecessary as Windows 8 Pro will be able to run on all mobile devices and thus inheriting the billions of Windows legacy apps which massively crushes Windows RT’s app store. At that point, and only at that point will Windows RT be dead. And at that point, Intel x86 chips will once again dominate the market with Microsoft by its side. Essentially it will be like the past 20 years again except this time in the mobile space.
Even if Microsoft moves onto RT 2.0 rather quickly, it doesn’t mean RT 1.0 is dead immediately. Windows RT is still Windows and that falls under Microsoft’s product support lifecycle. Meaning RT has at least 5 years of mainstream support from Microsoft which includes feature updates and security patches. Then it moves into extended support and will continue to receive security updates for awhile like any other version of Windows.
Yes, if we include some sort of emulation layer then yeah. Android has billions of applications too, as does Apple and to some less degree iOS. Indeed, if we include emulation then basically we could draw zero bounds on the number of applications that any platform has. Why not include Web applications into that figure as well?!
Point of fact is that MS-DOS applications do *not* run on Windows 8 they run on layers of compatibility and those applications and libraries that provide those layers run on Windows 8. If we want to count “by proxy” then the whole argument is moot either way you look at it. From my point or your point. However, like I said, that’s not really important because these kinds of numbers are just stupid ways people try to hype things. Sort like that whole Apple chart during the iPad mini release that showed a bar chart with 1 and 2, to show that the new iPad was twice as fast and, ergo it’s bar in the chart twice as high as the other bar. Just the usual information that’s not really relevant.
Indeed that Windows 8 has a port in ARM is interesting, but only in the curiosity realm of the matter. It is quite clear that Microsoft is moving onto that platform only to hedge against failure by Intel, which don’t get me started because Intel has so ruined x86 from mobile space so much that there is not likely any redemption. It shows how begrudgingly Microsoft came to the platform. They have been doing Windows CE on ARM for many years now and they have only had marginal commitment to that platform. It shows if you ever disassemble any kind of built in library on a Windows CE platform for ARM.
To Microsoft, ARM is the redheaded step-child of the family. Microsoft entrenched itself so deeply into Intel, that literally the code that comes out of Microsoft has a cult of personality all of its own. It is a mindset that has been carefully crafted over the years deeply flavored with Intel in mind optimizations. Microsoft took that mindset of their programmers and allowed it to seep into the ARM code. The results? Complex operations and branches of insanity within code. There is a reason why mobile platforms have simpler design APIs than their desktop brothers. Mobile platforms rather do, then fetch. They rather access than jump. They rather have ready state than dereference. Yes Windows RT can be saved, but it will not be without a serious discussion with the programmers and their mindsets when they set to code. Add in pressure from the Intel company to not feel left out and you have a pressure cooker left on the eye way too long.
That is the point here. Microsoft has spent many a years making their relationship almost political. Developing cultures that buck the norm in short spurts but never with longevity in mind. Look at the netbook and how it came and went and now is coming back to an extent. Only because Microsoft feared being left out in the cold on the form factor and now only because of an entire market.
Nothing that Microsoft has done since Ballmer has taken the reigns has been with long term goals in mind, or if it has, they have the world completely fooled. Their hasty decisions, their ever constantly shifting API and platforms, there’s a joke we have in our department. The Visual Studio team is so great at what they do because they are the only ones to know what Windows platform we all are suppose to work with this week.
Again, Microsoft has deeply cultivate the world in which they live in and they find themselves having rested on their laurels for so long, suddenly in a position that is alien to the current leadership. Not on top. As oppose to stay the course and continue to make the world’s greatest desktop platform, they are scrambling to enter a market they have little readiness to enter into long term. I would say the attitude at Microsoft at this moment must be one of “fake it till you make it.”
Indeed, if Intel does make a smash with their mobile platform, then the tide could turn quite amazingly with Microsoft. However that is a huge, “if”. Intel is guilty of the exact same of lack of innovation as Microsoft is. They feel that tossing more cores, increasing pipeline size, building a better prediction module, and so forth was the way to stay on top forever. They solidified their position by creating an x86 semi-monopoly and have done everything within their power to make x86 as solid as they possibly could. While there is no fault in making a better product, it does make you worse at trying something new. Intel’s Atom and their mobile development as a whole is a laugh. Never did Intel in its wildest dreams think that some itty-bitty platform like ARM could challenge it. Look at Intel’s laptops, they have flopped in ever single mobile chip they have ever tried as a unique mobile processor. It shows in how they have finally come to terms and put i3, i5 and i7 processors out and how laughable Centrino was as a platform. I find it extremely difficult to believe that suddenly everyone at Intel will shift their mindset/base of employees, however, with Intel management, I wouldn’t put it past them. Maybe a good purge is just what the doctor called for in the case of Intel.
Look, I’m not knocking the vision that Microsoft wants to run with. I think it’s great that they want to enter the mobile market and what-not, create some unity in their product, make themselves to be almost reborn so to say. However, the fear is that the management teams behind “Wintel” are a haphazardly sort, the kind that want to cultivate employees with deep roots and complex subsystems, APIs that are diverse and tools that hide platform complexity behind huge obtuse interfaces. Not the fresh and renewing spirit found in other companies. They’ve since spent a lot of the 2006 to 2009 era reversing course and simplifying life and their platforms. Windows 7 and Server 2008 R2 will be one of the greatest platforms ever put out by Microsoft, but they are so blinded by the dollar signs in the mobile space, that they totally fail to see the cash cow of desktops sitting at the table with them. They could, if they wanted, really get out there and make a last great stand for PC. They need but only stretch out their hand and take it. However, they would rather kowtow to the prospect of profits in the mobile market.
Microsoft is becoming the new IBM. However it is sad on so many levels to see the company not embrace their rightful place that they themselves fought so hard for all of these years. To see them cast their legacy so foolishly, reinvent a half hearted platform when their previous platform was so good, and bifurcate their strategy and even the UI itself. They could exist in a manner that makes them kings of a market, but they have abdicated such because of foolish management.
For Microsoft to come out of this some form of miracle must take place for them in the mobile market, they must abandon their current strategy of unified confusion, or they must make do making out an existence where they no long dictate the levels of innovation required in the computer industry to stay on the “happy” with investors.
For whatever Microsoft says and does at this point, it but only does so to make itchy investors happy, who day by day grow more callous to the Ballmer sovereignty. Even if this article said five million units were sold, I doubt that the blood thirsty investors would find much solitude in the figures. Even the less rambunctious investors would only give “meh”. No, Microsoft needs grand slam numbers, not “good”, not “great”, not “awesome”, but absolute victory numbers to satisfy the feel that is held by many with money in Microsoft. That is the threat that Microsoft faces. Not this, who has more apps than the other guy kind of crap that only people like us seemingly care about.
Well if that’s the case, then technically all 32-bit applications are also considered legacy and must be run through an emulation later on 64-bit versions of Windows (which will be the most widely used version).
Anyways, you really can’t compare Windows and Android/iOS evenly. It’s mainly because Windows as an operating system is on a completely different caliber than Android or iOS. And technically, the ARM platform is not quite powerful enough to achieve usable speeds when emulating x86 programs.
This is why I believe the death of the ARM platform is coming and why Microsoft will prevail. It’s almost a win-win situation for Microsoft. I guess Windows RT is meant to fill the gap while Intel gets their act together and in case Intel fails with x86 in the mobile space, Microsoft will have Windows RT to fallback to.
The thing is, Microsoft had no choice but to make Windows 8 the way it is now. Not only is the market beginning to shift in that direction, but if Microsoft didn’t do anything special with Windows 8, they’d be criticized for not innovating. Windows 7 is a pretty solid OS, there’s not really much more you can innovate or improve on in Windows 7 other than performance gains. Therefore, Windows 8 would’ve been just another version of Windows 7. At that point, Microsoft would definitely begin failing. Windows 8 in its current form had to happen. It may not be perfect, but it’ll get better over time. Microsoft had to do this.
And even if Microsoft does end up as another IBM, it wouldn’t be such a bad thing. IBM is actually doing very well right now and is once again growing very quickly. But yeah, Intel is the main factor here. Hopefully the rise of ARM is a wake up call for Intel to start innovating more into the mobile space. I don’t necessarily think Centrino was a failure as a mobile platform. I still see some laptops here and there with Centrino stickers on them and from my personal usage of them, they’re not bad.
Intel is definitely taking mobile platforms more seriously now. The new Clover Trail Intel Atom is supposed to be able to match ARM on power consumption while retaining the performance and legacy support of x86. And in the smartphone arena, Medfield shows that Intel still has some bite left. Intel has what they need to beat ARM. All they need to do is make a stronger push to get their chips in more devices.
Intel’s success is Microsoft’s key to dominating the market for another decade or so. Windows 8 is basically a gamble on Microsoft’s part while Windows RT is a fallback.
Now at the present, I don’t think saving Windows RT would call for a whole new version though. Windows RT, being Windows, doesn’t need to be abandoned for a whole new platform. Any problem with Windows RT can be resolved through software updates as it has always been done with Windows since Windows 95. All it would take is a service pack for Windows RT or something else like that.
Yes Windows in the desktop space is very profitable for Microsoft, but they shouldn’t just stick with it. Their push into the mobile space isn’t because of corporate greed or the need for more money. It’s because the desktop market is beginning to decline and Microsoft can’t rely on that market for much longer. If they want to stay relevant, they have to keep up with the competition.
I don’t think it’s fair to blame Steve Ballmer for the current state of Microsoft. The current vision of Microsoft is not too far off what Bill Gates would’ve done. Bill Gates always intended for Microsoft to make a strong push into the mobile space. And before Steve Ballmer, Microsoft could never make any impact in the mobile space at all. Now Microsoft actually has something viable in the mobile space. We’ll just have to see how well it does. The whole thing with “apps” really is just about marketing. I only mentioned it because I was trying to show that comparisons to Windows were pointless because it has a large library of software already, even without emulation.
Billions of apps? Eat s***, “billions” of flies can’t be wrong. rotflmao
FYI: This is an old story. More recent analyst estimates are 1.3M. Low, but inline with 1-2M.In the mean time I think the intentionally slow release is providing a great deal of real consumer (not blogger, fan boy, or hater) data. All sorts of hardware will be out next year. RT is not going anywhere. MSFT needs an OS that runs on ARM for embedded work and handheld work devices (like in healthcare).
hmm….do you have source for that data?
It drives me nuts when manufacturers think they can command the same prices that Apple does for the iPad. Doing so reveals that they don’t understand why people buy the iPad. I am not an iPad fanatic by any means, but you gotta appreciate the coolness mystique adn culture of desire that Apple has been adept in cultivating around their products. No amount commercials peppered with pop music and edgy dance moves are going to help Microsoft go mano-a-mano on the same hipster coolness level that Apple has spent years to developing and nurturing.Appealing to the nextgen masses is going to backfire because, XBOX stuff excluded, Microsoft offering the Surface as a cool alternative to is like Romney trying to be one of the guys Microsoft’s greatest strength is in Corporate Enterprise’s comfort in the brand. Show that the Surface is better than the iPad at work, then you can start to justify the pricing. Better integration and security with EXISTING enterprise environments is something that Apple doesn’t really concern themselves with so this would be a start. Embed MDM technology in the tablet and server offerings and you alleviate Enterprise’s angst with BYOD.The juxtaposition of Microsoft’s pricing and their marketing strategy seems tragically misguided and indicates an overestimation of their influence in a tablet market that they’ve allowed Apple and Google to establish rock solid beachheads that will definitely yield heavy losses to penetrate.
They should halve the price to penetrate. At the current price it’s a nice, but niche device. I think there is a 45% profit margin on the device so there is room for a price drop.
Apple is the way of the future. Mr. Softy is so ten years late.