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Leonardo DiCaprio Won't Take Home an Oscar if Roku's Predictions Prove Correct

While Leonardo DiCaprio is the fan favorite to win an Oscar for Best Actor this year for his role in The Revenant, it seems the stars may not be in his favor, at least based on how Roku is reading them.

Roku has released an infographic with its predictions of who will take home the golden statue in each of the major categories this coming Sunday, February 28. The results are based on Roku Feed data from October 10, 2015 through to February 1, 2016. And the numbers, suggests Roku, point to Matt Damon winning for his role in The Martian, not DiCaprio.

Related: Watch these 10 Oscar nominees act in roles before they were A-listers

OK, so there’s no rigorous scientific reasoning behind the predictions. But, if history has shown us anything, sometimes those who work closely with content are bang-on with their guesses. The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg reportedly has one of the strongest track records for predicting winners, but he has yet to confirm his choices. So the prediction race is anyone’s game.

That said, many other pundits, including Variety, Indiewire, and Business Insider are tapping DiCaprio as the winner, with Michael Fassbender as the potential “upset” winner for his role as Steve Jobs in the movie of the same name.

The upset factor is huge for DiCaprio: the long-time dramatic actor has yet to win an Oscar. While he has been nominated five times for roles in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape (1994), The Aviator (2005), Blood Diamond (2007), and, most recently, The Wolf of Wall Street in 2014, he’s never heard his name read, walked up to that podium, and give his speech. Sure, he’s collected awards galore through his career, including three Golden Globes (including Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture for The Revenant this year), a BAFTA award (again, for The Revenant), and more, but there’s a clear, gaping hole on his shelf that’s waiting for that statue. Fans, and likely his peer actors, are rooting for the 41-year-old. That, however, doesn’t mean he’ll actually win.

Damon, meanwhile, has one Oscar to his name for Writing the Screenplay for Good Will Hunting in 1998. But it’s worth noting that while he has had three nominations for Best Actor, Damon hasn’t won one for his acting, either.

What else did Roku predict? The company believes that Bridge of Spies will win Best Picture, The Revenant for Best Direction, Inside Out for Best Animated Feature, Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress (also contrary to most other pundits, who believe Brie Larson will win for Room), Kate Winslet for Best Supporting Actress, and Tom Hardy for Best Supporting Actor. That last prediction also contradicts most others, which have Sylvester Stallone as a shoe-in to win for his work in Creed.

Roku is certainly going against the majority on many of these prognostications. But if the company comes out victorious, Roku’s Feed feature data may just prove to be a contender in the yearly Oscar predictions race.