With three new gaming systems competing, I break down how the industry will decide who wins. It all comes down to the numbers game.
If there’s one thing we in the videogame biz prefer to gloss over, it’s precisely that: The fact that videogames are, in fact, a business. And when you look at some of the hard numbers surrounding the industry, well? it’s a safe bet things will be getting very interesting, very soon.
Undoubtedly, what you saw at E3 2006 was a seemingly endless, candy-colored parade of awe-inducing outings from Tekken 6 and Metal Gear Solid 4 to Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3: Corruption. What I saw instead was an industry in transition, domination over which is now potentially anyone’s game going forward, as next-generation hardware manufacturers’ own sales data and pricing strategies reveal.
It’s a strange place to be, considering that keeping tabs on where things really stood wasn’t so difficult just a scant year or two ago. Sony held firm sway over the marketplace via the unstoppable PlayStation 2 juggernaut. Microsoft was (oddly enough) the scrappy underdog who’d resorted to overspending, pouring billions into R&D and promotions in hopes of increasing its market share through the Xbox and Xbox 360. As for Nintendo, the company’s GameCube just kept chugging along, a distant third-place contender to other machines, and one starved for third-party software at that.
But this summer, strangely, a glimpse at the gaming sector finds the proverbial ball officially back in play.
Observe.
Insiders generally agree that 10 million units sold is the tipping point for any gaming console in terms of gaining retail traction. Get this many systems into the marketplace, and it’s a safe bet the public’s hunger for content will fuel a steady stream of software releases, which in turn creates more demand for the hardware itself, perpetuating the cycle.
Despite hardware shortages and criticisms of the Xbox 360′s initial software lineup, it’s a milestone Microsoft, previously a second-place finisher, has the distinct potential of reaching before the unit’s competitors even begin shipping in Q4 2006. A respectable 5 million machines will no doubt be in overjoyed enthusiasts’ hands by the end of June alone.
Oh, and online networking service Xbox Live, which serves both Xbox and Xbox 360 owners? It’s rocking 6 million members, more than any console-specific broadband platform. Suffice it to say the system currently boasts an impressively-sized audience, and one comprised primarily of individuals unlikely to turn their back on a machine they’ve already invested upwards of $400 in.
Meanwhile, Sony’s busy doing all it can to erode its fan base by pricing the PlayStation 3 out of the reach of everyone but diehard gamers or intrigued upper-middle- to upper-class consumers. Paying $499 for a next-generation console with a built-in 20GB hard drive, whiz-bang Cell processor, six-axis motion-sensitive controller and badass Blu-Ray drive is one thing. Finding out you really need to pony up another hundred bucks to truly take advantage of all the gadget offers and enjoy features like HDMI, 1080p visual resolution, WiFi support and a 60GB hard drive, another entirely.
Even on the low end ? and taking into consideration that the company’s generously offering free online networking services to PS3 buyers ? you’re still spending a small fortune.
Lifelong fan of the PlayStation product line or no, what parent is going to buy their child a toy that costs more than their PDA, or, for that matter, a ticket to Rome? How many joystick jocks, already fuming over $60 software price tags, want to drop anywhere from several days’ to a month’s pay on a system that plays many of the same offerings as its competitors? And, truthfully, after Sony Computer Entertainment head Ken Kutaragi’s shocking comments that the system’s selling for too little, who seriously feels like padding the company’s coffers any more than necessary?
All this before you even consider that Grand Theft Auto IV will arrive for the Xbox 360 the same day it does PlayStation 3. Not to mention that Microsoft’s main machine ? selling for hundreds less ? seems to perform just as ably from a technology standpoint with the latest generation of games as its closest rival. There’s literally going to be a gap of at least several years while game designers come to grips with PS3′s capabilities and figure out how the hell they’re financing system-unique developments where titles will play much the same no matter the hardware platform they run on. (Ah, the joys of cutting costs through quick and dirty software ports?) To wit: What’s the point in paying twice the price to enjoy titles like BioShock and NBA Live 07 equally as much?
The upshot being, of course, that there’s no better time for Microsoft to make significant strides towards gaining market share than the present.
Don’t count Nintendo out of the race either. If anything, Japan’s number one son ? who’s vowed to price its Wii console cheaper than competitors ? is on the cusp of a major comeback.
Analysts predict the device, aimed at enticing former fans back into the fold and expanding gaming’s overall audience, will retail somewhere between $199 and $249. Given how well the machine’s two-piece, motion-sensitive control system (which lets you wave, swing and thrust a wireless remote control to cause on-screen characters and objects to react accordingly) handles, heck? You’d almost be insane not to invest in the device, especially with featured titles like Excite Truck, Red Steel and WarioWare: Smooth Moves coming shortly.
Previously, the publisher’s been content to control about 20% of the marketplace and milk a core base of dedicated consumers for millions in profits. But by virtue of the system’s brilliant sticker price and built-in sex appeal alone, the house that built Mario may find its holdings expanding exponentially almost overnight when the unit ships this holiday season. Trust me: Everyone’s going to want one of these things. What’s more, scary as it sounds to classify the unit as such, especially given its not-insignificant price tag, the Wii’s probably the closest thing you’ll see console-wise anytime soon to an impulse buy.
Taken together, it’s enough to throw the industry into a state of semi-chaos. Gaze into the crystal ball, and in the near future, it isn’t hard to see Sony losing its lead, Microsoft and Nintendo gaining ground, and the stage being set for a major three-way conflict.
Whatever happens, though ? win, lose or draw ? I can say one thing with certainty: The next three to five years will be one of the most exciting periods in gaming history, especially for all us bean-counting geeks.
Showing 15 comments
RSSAnd as for the Nintendo Wii's controller(I KNOW NINTENDO WILL DO THIS) i know there gonna make a variety of different connections for that controller rather than just the "Nunchuck". And as for the depth of sound in the controller...brilliant. PS3 might have backward compatibility with the PS1 AND PS2(wow..) but the Wii has backward compatibility to the FULLEST. NES, SNES, N64, and even Gamecube that you can directly play on the Wii.
To conclude this, come on be serious what are the PS3 and XBOX 360 really focusing on? Graphics, new games, and a thing called Bue ray. The XBOX 360 is basically the same thing. As for the Wii, they might have not have reached the graphic power of the ps3 and xbox360, but the wii sure has better graphics, a new controller, backward compatibility, also you dont need and HDTV to play the wii at its full power. And the cost....hehe.....
PS3- $500-$600
XBOX 360- $300-$400
Nintendo Wii- hehe...priceless(compared to the other systems lol)
With that being said, I really see the Wii pulling out a little ahead. I think Sony will also have a strong game line-up. I see the Xbox struggling once again, although I like the Xbox Live Arcade.
although im still unsure if sony has made a huge step in the right direction with the blu-ray or if they have shot themselves in the foot
The only thing standing against the PS3 right now is the price tag which I think many people who hate the price will end up paying it later on or wait for a price drop. I hate the price too but I'll most likely end up purchasing one. I also have serious doubts about people not purchasing the console solely based on the lack of a rumble feature and most likely they'll implement it later on.
I'm looking forward to the Wii as well and considering it's low price point and my love for Nintendo games I will definitely purchase this. Additionally, Nintendo may seem "kiddy" but looking around my dorms, nobody seems to really care. Nintendo has some fun games... some seem pretty lame at first but they are loads of fun to play once you give them a shot.
Xbox 360... I was never a big fan of the Xbox and I'm not impressed with the 360.
PlayStation doesn't have the hardcore gamer appeal, Gamecube and Xbox do. If you look at MLG (Major League Gaming), their 2 professionally played games are Halo 2 (Xbox) and Super Smash Bros. Melee (Gamecube). Where's the PS2? I'll tell you, it's not there, because it's not a system that attracts hardcore gamers. Since this trend of brands will continue into the next generation, but hardcore gaming will be expanded, guess who comes out to be the loser.
My point is that getting to 10 million sales is not really relevant to ultimate success.
The PSOne and PS2 have sold in excess of 100 million units each.
The $399 cost of the Xbox360 is okay, but you also have to think about the $60 games.
If the PS3 is noticably better, especially at HD than the Xbox360, then there is good leverage to get a PS3. Many people have already purchased HD TVs, and I'm guessing there will be large sales in the next few years. But what use is a HD TV without a HD medium to watch? (games and films)
Sure there is a Sky HD channel, if you have Sky.
The fact the PS3 has bluRay built-in means I think that PS3 plus HDTV will become a common option. The $599 for the PS3 is low in this context, after all the TV will cost you a lot more than that in itself.
I think there is a lot of wishful thinking about the Xbox360. Personally I think it is too little too soon, as the Dreamcast was. A lot of people will wait to see what the deal is like when the PS3 arrives. If you go to the store in November and see the PS3 with HDTV blows away Xbox360, (for example even with BluRay films), then there will be a lot of sales.
There is also the fact that there is massive PS3 content out there for sale and rental. This makes migration less painful. I sold my original Xbox to get a PS2, as the content (including things like Singstar and Eyetoy) is a lot better. I found Halo and Halo2 to be a far less interesting game than SOCOM seals (and the Halo earpeice is rubbish, whereas the SOCOM earpeice is very well built).
So overall, I think the PS3 is still a very good bet. All will be far more certain in 7 months.
I'm sure the Wii will have it's supporters, but it's mainly in the PS2 hardware zone in terms of performance, and without the vast array of titles.
MS obviously has the games that most hardcore players prefer, while Sony's PS3 will have games that will target a younger teenage market. The biggest downfall for Sonys (very expensive?) PS3 is the lack of rumble feature it will no longer have.
Force feedback will be lacking on the PS3 hardware, Nintendo and Microsoft currently have this, especially for racers, the PS3 will fall on this category.
People will think twice about the lack of rumble feature the PS3 has, and will take the cheaper and innovative Nintendo and Microsofts system.
Sony is desperate, and decides to steal Nintendos controller idea, this shows signs of desperation, and the lack of any good launch titles will cause trouble for Sonys console (especially at the high prices), and fans will yet again buy its competitors systems.
MS 360 will have some killer apps by the time the PS3 launches and will surely put it to shame, the same goes for Nintendos really innovative Wii console in which will launch The Legend Of Zelda: Twilight Princess in 2 flavors (ahem), Zelda for gamecube and another version specific for the Wii.
But, people will probably buy the PS3 based on the Sony name itself, but, we have seen this trend fall before with Nintendos Gamecube and N64 systems, which were not well recieved in the last previous 2 generations, but the SNES and NES before it were the systems to own.
Can history repeat itself with Sony's PS3?
The system is said to be more complex for developers compared to the 360 and the Wii..
Will the PS3 actually be Sonys massive downfall? Especially with the Blue Ray technology (which is not a norm to own at the moment). Only time will tell which systems will own the new generation.
I predicted and saw great things happen in the past, Sony is gambling on a high stakes poker game with 2 others, they seem to be sweating at the moment, its only a matter of time before they fold...
I'm sure the PS3 will sell, if not well then reasonably well. In fact I hope it does because I would really hate to see Sony take a hit in their gaming department, they certainly can't afford to since their other departments haven't been performing as expected. In addition I would hate to see the Blu-Ray format die; the cost of each game would increase but also it seems Blu-Ray is superior to HD-DVD in many ways. Although the cost of the machine is too much (in my opinion), the previous posts suggest Sony fans will not be bothered so much by the price. Still I think those same fans should at least be willing to admit that because of the pricing structure (both Sony's and its competitors) there will inevitably be some shift in Sony's market share, for the worse, WITHIN the next gen consoles.
One last thing: Look at the DS. Outselling PSP 7 to 1. And market research shows the majority of DS units being sold are now going to *gasp* ADULTS. You know, those that are older than kids? Could it be... Nintendo is not really a kid company but one who's games appear to be childish to those of you obsessed with blowing every thing up and acting all ghetto.
It will be parents buying games for their children and that's it. Not that thats anything to be ashamed of, my parents bought me an NES when I was a kid and I spent hours on it (ok, days and months on it) but serious gamers are not going to go for the Wii.
You can get 1080p over component on the $499 model. Wifi and a 60GB HDD are hardly necessities (in fact, given that you can upgrade the HDD using any standard 2.5" drive, you'd be better off picking one up at newegg or amazon versus paying another $100 for it).
As for your point about paying twice the price to play the same games..what? PS3 at $499 is $100 more expensive than 360 at $399 - and the $399 version is really the only option. No one's buying the $300 version because you need to get a memory card anyway, which already brings you closer to the premium version. And you can't argue that the $499 PS3 is in the same position at all - it has more features than the premium 360, and doesn't require further purchases. Nor does it require an online subscription at $50/year..
And who says the games will be the same anyway? I was just reading a comment from Starbreeze's art director talking about how only having DVD on 360 is a big problem. What kind of corners will have to be cut in games going forward? The issue may not be a massive one right now, but we're talking about systems you buy for 5 or 6 years of gaming. Issues like this won't get smaller.
Asides from shared multiplatform games, also, there remains a lot of titles that are only coming to PS3 because of Sony's strength in the Japanese market, something 360 lacks entirely. Staple franchises like Tekken, Final Fantasy, Virtua Fighter, Metal Gear Solid etc. If you want access to the most content, Playstation remains the best bet as far as I can see.