David Mayer
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I can afford to be smug….I predicted DVD would win. Yes…DVD, non-HD. I knew that Blu-Ray would come out on top bewteen Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, but that neither would penetrate the market enough to be the new dominant format. I stated this on the net (it is archived for all to see) for totally logical reasons…for which I used my mind, not my heart and misplaced brand loyalties. I told people they were crazy to expect the public to dump their DVD collections and buy a new format so soon. Especially when the difference between DVD and BD's/HD-DVD's was nothing compared to the difference between VHS and DVD (yes, I know, mathematically there is a bigger difference….but the eyes just don't see it).

I said Blu-Ray would become a stand-along enthusiast's format….which it is. The only BD's I buy are the combi types….where you get a BD and DVD in the same box. I have a few, but mainly I upscale my DVD collection. It looks great. Not as good as real BD…..but certainly good enough till the true successor to DVD comes along. And let me call this one while I'm at it….the successor will NOT be digital downloads. People will not give up a physical copy, with the nice artwork and fancy box…not a chance (what would they expect us to pass down to our kids? Our hard drives?…get outta here!) Digital downloads will have their place….but only as another stand-along format. As to what *will* take over DVD….how the hell should I know? I don't have a crystal ball. I'm simply a decent observer of the market….and a better judge than all of you who bought a HD-DVD player.

Hey Rob! How long do you plan on holding on to that sinking ship called the SS Microsoft? Pretty soon they won't have any money left to pay you either!

It was a hard race to call what with all the dark horse PS3's out there.

Good for you in leaving this article up given the tide changed within 2 months you you writing it, and just over a year later, well, HD-DVD is practically dead.

Still have to see if BD can hold up against the other future techs.

actually, now every Blu-ray Warner title has outsold hd-duds!

Let's see now, Blu-ray has exclusive support from: Warner, Disney, Tristar/Columbia, 20th Century Fox, and Lion's Gate! And that's just the biggest supporters.

Oh yeah, and the fact that Blu-ray won the war not even a week after you posted that.

–really now? Yes it's a year later and yes hindsight is 20/20, but how could the author actually justify this statement. Especially since at the time the PS3 was the hottest thing on the market, providing an exceptional blu-ray player that still remains better then most set-top decks.

higorc

Sorry for the multiple postings (gremlins got into my system).

I think it comes down to the fact that Blue Ray promised so much and in every respect has failed to deliver a typical DVD title thats beyond a standard DVD (or god forbid even a HD DVD).

Yeah I know Blue ray has hours more storage copacity, but who cares when they can't be bothered to even attempt to push the DVD storage on Blue Ray to anything like half full capacity. Then there's the fact that most Blue Ray players can't play all the features of even a good Blue Ray disc like Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy DVDs.

Forgetting all the infantile anti MS rants and Sony rants, Most Blue Ray stuff is not compatible without massive expenditure to make it compatible (so why invest lots of time and money for what stands a good chance of just just becoming a fad item). Remember Betamax.

Sony has a long history of this (making a stand technologically and doggedly sticking to it). But long before them studios will jump ship (warners will probably come down in favour of HD in the next 18 months or even sooner (as even though their High Definition style titles (both HD & Blue Ray) are niche markets), Blue Ray is far outstripped by Blue Ray. Paramount made its decision to ditch Blue Ray (and thats not a permanent thing) on which format is shifting far more units (and comparing the sales curves of HD titles like Mission Impossible 3, compared to the sales of the Blue Ray format of that title alone and you don't need to be a genius to work out that Blue Ray would be dumped).

This isn't an anti Blue Ray rant, it's just Sony has re-written (again) the book on bad practice (or what not to do when releasing a pretty unneccesary technology on a not so gullible public).

I mean lets face it the PS3 has not done that well and now the XBox 360 is on sale in the UK without reverse technology (and I must admit any advantage PS3 had in the graphics area has just been wiped out in one fell swoop). So they can't claim that anymore over the competitors.

Yes Blue Ray is the better storage capacity, but as for the wedding photography guy (be honest, just how much did you lay out on the Blue Ray equipment? and how much would you have paid out for HD equivalent equipment if it was available).

As for saying Blue Ray will win because of FOX or Disney (don't make me laugh, even if Blue Ray titles suddenly start selling in large quantities even Fox and Disney are gonna start cranking out HD titles soon and wanna make money )(or just keep cranking out regular DVD titles) and even the 'blackmail' that Disney employs to 'force' customers to buy Blue Ray titles has backfired (the recent POTC: At Worlds End) only available on 2 disc DVD for a few months (so if you want the extras buy the Blue Ray format) stinks. All they'll do is alieniate customers who only have DVD format and if you don't manage to get the 2 disc DVD… well tough. Taht seems like a crumby way to treat loyal customers.

Fox… well George Lucas isn't going to let Fox put a copy of the Star Wars films with jack in the way of extras on a format that s superior to DVD.

But both Fox and Disney are in the market of getting you to buy the same old product all over again in bright shiny new packaging or on the new format. Just look at how they exploit their back catalogue and how little new fare they have to offer customers.

The proof of the pudding or dessert is in the eating they say, and recently I had the fortune of shopping in a large DVD/Music store with a close female friend (who is an executive worker with a very large disposable income (in ad man speak)), and she commented on why AVP on Blue Ray had only a yak track and no other extras where-as Hulk on HD had oodles of extras (her words, not mine) and was cheaper.

When I asked her to elaborate she pulled out a copy of a booklet and stated that HD and Blue Ray has far more storage capacity (true) and that Blue Ray is the better format tecnically (true… on the storage side especially) and she saked me why all the Blue Ray titles (Pirates of the Caribbean excepted) are inferior to the DVDs I could only shrug my shoulders and mutter something about Sony, when her eyes lit up and she said 'ah, Sony, now I understand'.

That seems to be the general consesus amongst people that don't follow the formats that closely (you know the types, people with jobs, lives, kids, partners etc), that most of them share.

And finally a word to Gonzo (he DOES look just like that Muppet, he works at a local comic/model/Games/hobby shop and his sage comments are… and I quote yet again… dude (yes he does (oh forget it), he said, HD is gonna win as there's no Blue Movies on Blue Ray, I had to laugh, and I think there's more than a grain of truth in that, as porn has driven the home entertainment industry since, well since forever. They pioneered VHS, DVD (extras), pushing the format in regards to extras, and now they are aggressively promoting HD DVD titles.

regards,
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