Yay for Rob. Of course he was right. If we had any doubt we would not have published this article.

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/format-war/198-wal+mart-toshiba-hd-dvd-player-confirmed-by-spy-shot-315296.php“ title=”http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/format-war/198-wal+mart-toshiba-hd-dvd-player-confirmed-by-spy-shot-315296.php“ target=”_blank” ref=”nofollow”>http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/format-war/198-wal+mart…

I thought you'd comment on their decision being premature since Walmart will obviously flood the market with HD DVD players.

Do you plan on commenting sometime soon?

For what do you try to appeal in the article on Funai of February? The article is older and more inaccurate than financial report.
http://www.funaiworld.com/investors/financial_report/pdf/ks_e554.pdf“ title=”http://www.funaiworld.com/investors/financial_report/pdf/ks_e554.pdf“ target=”_blank” ref=”nofollow”>http://www.funaiworld.com/investors/financial_repo…
Do you have some powers to make decisions in the plan of Funai?Or, is it a liar?

It is necessary to buy Blue-violet laser diode from SONY and NICHIA to make the high definition disk player.
In addition, when Toshiba and companies other than LG (The cross-license was exchanged) make the HD DVD player, it is necessary to pay the royalty. It is a price that a cheap player of Toshiba disregarded the cost like PS3. Do you think that it is possible to make HD DVD player who is cheaper than Toshiba?

HD DVD stand-alone player is 150,000 units according to the announcement of the HD DVD camp. The Blu-ray camp that sold a more high-priced stand-alone player sold it by 100,000 units. In addition, Blu-ray is 70% in the share of the High-Def disk sales.

Even if you declare that you do not count the figure of a free coupon of Toshiba, it is
meaningless. Nonsense. “

Sorry, but you need to brush up on your English comprehension. It is not meaningless. Let me say it again and hopefully it is simple enough this time – a coupon redeemed to the manufacturer, where the manufacturer or its distributor ships you the disc, or a free disc packed in with your machine in the box, are NOT counted in retail sales figures. A coupon for discounts at retail, or a coupon for a free disc redeemable from a retail store, affect RETAIL store inventory and thus affect retail sales figures. So – free HD-DVDs redeemable by sending in coupons to Toshiba, or included in the box, do not count in retail figures such as thus put forth by Nielsen. Discount coupons and free disc offers (regardless of HD-DVD or Blu-ray)that are redeemed at retail, do affect retail inventory, and thus DO influence retail sales figures.

Also: “FUNAI won BILLION DOLLAR SUPPLIER in fiscal year 2006 from Wal-Mart this year. FUNAI plans to sell the Blu-ray player. “

I have news for you. Wal-Mart sells a variety of Funai equipment under the Symphonic label, and no-name, and private label. Most of which are DVD players, LCD TVs, and other electronics. There is no confirmation at all saying Funai is deliver BD players to Wal-Mart this year, though I'm sure its a possibility for the future. No deal is in place with Wal-mart for BD players yet. If you read other details about the deal, the estimated price is around $500 for Funai's BD player that they plan to have finished before the end of the year, that they plan to shop to various retailers as an OEM product. No doubt this will drop some now that Sony is dumping their latest player at $499, but it will still be considerably more expensive than Fuh Yuan's $200 player at Wal-Mart by the end of the year. Blu-ray still loses, regardless of the manufacturer and the angle.

I think you also missed this tidbit: “While its first product is likely to be compatible with Blu-ray Disc, Takanaka said Funai hasn't taken sides in the format battle and is also considering an HD DVD player.”

“Can someone tell us where to go to find accurate sales statistics for HD DVD players and movies V Blue Ray machines and movies- also PS3 sales-then maybe we can judge for ourselves who is winning without the emotional hype “

Nigel – for PS3 sales you want to look up the NPD figures for north america, more difficult to come by for Europe but they're out there, and for Japan look up Media Create's numbers. PS3 sold only about 82 k units in April in the US, somewhere around 38k units in Japan, and in Europe it's still unsure but growth has slowed to a snail's pace compared to launch. PS3 is likely to hit less than 6M units for 2007 but they are planning to ship 11M units for the year. A lot of trouble there considering estimates place around 2M units still sitting around right now in retail inventories unsold and moving poorly.

As I said previously on the thread…watch…

Even if you declare that you do not count the figure of a free coupon of Toshiba, it is
meaningless. Nonsense.

Sorry, your attempt to bail water for BD fails here. The discount coupons (not the free title offers redeemable direct to Sony) for retail do indeed help pump up software sales for BD….because the titles purchased with coupon come direct from retail inventory.

Moreover you have no point in regards to free coupons for HD-DVD – those are redeemed *direct to Toshiba* to collect the free movies and thus are NOT counted in retail sales figures, which is what we are talking about. Bringing it up means nothing.

Let's also examine this:

“Theron is a supporter of HD DVD of a typical liar. It tells a lie unabashedly by “Blu-ray is MPEG-2″, “HD DVD is VC-1″. In addition, it doesn't know H.264/MPEG-4 AVC High-profile of PHL (Panasonic Hollywood laboratory) to be high quality more than VC-1 of MS (Microsoft).”

So let's avoid the babble and get into real world perpsective. Previously, we heard that the capacity of BD and the xfer rate were assets. Meaning what? Well before with MPEG-2 most of that space (and in many cases only SL BD-ROM) was used up to create a picture that in many cases came up ever so slightly short of HD-DVD in picture quality comparisons. Then now we see BD discs finally using more MPEG-4 and VC-1. Which now in image quality comparisons is by most reviews indistiguishable from HD-DVD's using VC-1.

So Theron may have used the old point about MPEG-2 which isnt valid anymore with BD discs increasingly using advanced codecs. But the important point is that even that being said – you are paying more for a format that HAS NO PICTURE QUALITY ADVANTAGES. So talking about space and transfer rates is utterly idiotic if it yields zero real benefit. You can talk about future benefits, sure… however it only means something if it actually translates to real value to the mainstream consumer, something that they will pay more for. Given the average person will buy a disc, press play, use FF/RW, and chapter skip, and basically look at an HD picture, they are not going to see much difference between either format.

On top of that. Blue-laser sales were an almost infinitesimally small drop in the bucket compared to DVD hardware and software – the mainstream doesnt really care about either format for the most part right now and wont for probably a year or two – it will be dictated by affordability.

Will people pay hundreds of dollars more for a format where they can tell no difference in picture quality now, and in the future if actual PQ improves for BD, they will only be able to see PQ improvements on 1080p screens that are at least 50″ or larger? You guys do realize the majority of HD sets are like 42″ and below right? Also that the bulk of the HD sets being sold right now and for a few years are 720p and 768p right? Real world takeaway: the mass market will not see a PQ difference between either format despite any theoretical advancements BD may make, on the TVs they typically buy.

The supporter of HD DVD of a typical liar doesn't try to accept the reality of the sales comparisons of movies of Blu-ray and HD DVD. “

Jeff shows “Time” in which the Blu-ray movie and the coupon are given to PS3 to make it mislead for all of the number of Blu-ray movie sales to depend on the coupon or neither “Region” nor “Title”. In addition, it is not written at all that five free HD DVD movie coupons are given to the HD DVD player made by Toshiba between until July 31 in the North America region.

Rob Enderle
You should have noticed that it was a lie because it was being written TDK in the rumor article. TDK is manufactured with the development of the Blu-ray disk. However, there is no business of hardware like the player in TDK. Rob Enderle is a negligent writer.

I have news for you. Right now no one cares about the content libraries. By no one I mean the mass market by which either format must rely upon to live and die in this format war. Early adopters and movie geeks, and us tech friendly people are few in number compared to the overall market for disc-based movies.

I say no one cares because the standalone player sales and attach rates prove it. Even though HD-DVD outsells BD in standalone players in Europe and North america by ridiculous factors of 4 to 8 times (larger in Europe), blue laser players overall DONT SELL WELL. The whole segment does not move. The majority of HD-DVD drives shipped worldwide have been from Xbox 360 addons.

1. Ergo, first point – right now the mass market is not buying hi def players in any significant numbers – they do not care. Why? it is too expensive and they are happy enough with DVD.

2. People are buying far less BD units than HD-DVD. Despite a larger content library no one cares. As much as you yell about content it is moot and useless. No one in the mass market is rushing out to buy blue laser players, and even fewer are buying BD even with the better library. People are more concerned with price than they are with whether or not “POTC IS ON BLU RAY! IT R0X0RZ!”

“I think not, even on movies available on both formats, Blu-ray discs are selling better than HD-DVD. “

Addressed by many people many times. When online vendors have half off sales and Sony puts out coupons for movies packed in with the PS3, it is not hard to boost software numbers. And yes, a free certificate redeemed by sending in to the company wont show up in the retail numbers…. but discs bought using DISCOUNTED certificates do as they are still removing BD titles from still inventory.

The recent HD-DVD group buy gimmick is clear evidence of just how fragile an indicator the software sales figures really are. Moreover, if so many people were buying BD in the BD userbase which is 97% PS3's, we would see massive differences in software sales. We are not.

Content as a reason why Blu-ray will win is a loser. It will remain a loser, and the market has already shown it – content is not driving standalone BD player sales. Content (hell either movie OR gaming) is not driving PS3 sales given the drastic nosedives in all regions for that console. Content is not even driving massive software sales for BD software – it took certificates and half off sales. And why is content not driving hardware? Simple, the hardware is more expensive than people will pay. Price is more powerful to consumers than content in their motivations to buy blue-laser players – dont even bother argue because the market has proven it. BD players get outsold widely by HD-DVD players, and the PS3 cant sustain solid sales post-launch anywhere in the world even despite having the dual appeal of being a console and the cheapest BD player in the world.

As PS3 launches have now completed for the major regions we will be in several quarters free from PS3 launch boost and impulse buys of BD movies from new owners, and without coupon-boosted sales. Also, PS3 and BD hardware penetration will slow down notably as sales have slowed dramatically worldwide for the console. Sony has 2-3 million PS3s in retail inventory right now that arent selling well, and retailers are going nuts.

I'm sure that bringing up price as a key to victory irritates BD proponents and owners who have built a rationalization system around consumer reality to justify their stances. Tough. Watch as the market evolves over the next year. Watch the NPD and Media Create numbers. Watch average retail pricing for HD-DVD hardware. Watch more companies like Samsung, LG, and HP go from the BD camp to dual-format.

Watch.

HD-DVD recently released a statement that they would be hitting the 1 million yet Blu-ray reached it sooner even though it was released a year later. Wake up Folks, the reality is here, HD-DVD is on the endangered list.

I think Rob's assessment makes sense. What I got out of the retraction statement that Chinese company put out is that they personally did not get the bid, but that other Chinese manufacturers are currently bidding on it. That does tell me that Wal-Mart is looking to add a cheap HD DVD player to their line-up. How could it not be that clear?

I really thought you had a lot going for you until you got to the Enderle statement. You clearly know your technical specifications, but lack any sort of marketing insight – which Rob clearly gets.

Nothing like educating people with facts, then topping it off with an unprofessional remark. I think that is the difference between contributing, and trolling.

With that being said, what Rob is pointing out and Wal-Mart are doing makes sense. But will it curb Blu-Ray growth? I certainly hope not, as I think it's a better format personally. And can Wal-Mart really impact the growth of a product like this? Selling their Linux-based Linspire systems is one thing, but going with a cheap next-gen Chinese HD DVD player is another. It seems like an oxymoron, a high-end player being sold to the cheapest bidder.

>Blu-ray has about 50% yield, HD DVD has about 90% yield.

Blu-ray's yield is above 80% for SL and reportedly above 60% for DL, and improving rapidly. Further, if yield were such an issue why would 7 of 8 studios support Blu-ray while only 3 of 8 support HD DVD?

>Factor in Sony's greed, you can easily see why their top of the line (blu-ray) player is hundreds more than Toshiba's top of the line HD DVD player.

Sony has two players – a PS3 for $599 and the BDP-S1 for $999 (about to be replaced by a follow-on unit for $599). Toshiba reduced their MSRP from $999 to $799. Sony's reducing theirs from $999 to $599. How is $599 hundreds more than $799?

>The much tounted “size” advantage, or capacity of Blu-ray vs HD-DVD (30gb vs 45gb initially) means nothing in terms of quality of sound and picture. Using newer, more advanced audio (Dolby True-HD) codecs and video codecs (VC-1), Typical movies fit just fine on either format.

A) You're ignoring bandwidth. Blu-ray has over 50% more bandwidth available from the disc, which means much higher bitrates can be used to provide better picture, audio, interactivity, more languages, etc. Further, movies like King Kong on HD DVD had little interactivity and no lossless sound because they were OUT OF SPACE. 30GB is not enough today, and surely won't be enough a few years from now. Pirates of the Caribbean will be released on a BD50 plus a BD25, so even 50GB isn't necessarily enough, but it's still 2/3 higher than 30GB.

>As soon as I get a newer receiver, I'm going with a Toshiba XA2. Not only is it a great HD DVD player, but one of the best upconverting players as well. I believe it is the cheapest upconverting player that uses that much respected Silicon Optix Reon VX video processing chip. (same component used in $2000 outboard video processors)

Try the Samsung PD-P1200 – save chipset, same or cheaper cost.

>HD-DVD plays regular cd's. Blu-ray, nope.

The PS3, Panasonic, both Samsungs, and Philips Blu-ray players all support CD's. The LG combo player doesn't play CD's, so your statement is doubly-wrong – most BD players do support CD, and at least on HD DVD player doesn't.

>It's such a big list, it will not be suprising to see Blu-ray become a sony pictures only format for the PS3 user base.

The list of Blu-ray supporting companies is far, far longer than HD DVD. Ignoring the neutral players, how can you compare Sony, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Dell, Disney, Fox, Sun, MGM, and Lions Gate to Toshiba, Universal, and Microsoft?

Enderle just digs a deeper hole here ignoring WalMart's denial and pinning his weak premise on a tortured statement from a Chinese vendor about to have an IP clearly looking to generate interest. Enderle has less than zero credibility.

The deciding factor in HD DVD's favor is a combination of things.

Producing the movies/discs: Blu-ray has about 50% yield, HD DVD has about 90% yield. That means 50% of blu-ray discs made are defective, vs. 10% for HD-DVD. This is not to say they are shipped defective as well, surely some kind of testing is performed. However that translates into additional cost, and increases the likelyhood a defective disc will get shipped.

The low cost player, say $199 and lower, is going to be a much better seller than $500+ players. Factor in Sony's greed, you can easily see why their top of the line (blu-ray) player is hundreds more than Toshiba's top of the line HD DVD player. Blu-ray is good for Sony, expensive for consumers. HD-DVD is just as good if not better for consumers, and cheaper all the way around.

Picture quality is identical.

HD-DVD uses VC-1 codec which is a much newer and more efficient codec than Mpeg2 is. The much tounted “size” advantage, or capacity of Blu-ray vs HD-DVD (30gb vs 45gb initially) means nothing in terms of quality of sound and picture. Using newer, more advanced audio (Dolby True-HD) codecs and video codecs (VC-1), Typical movies fit just fine on either format.

As soon as I get a newer receiver, I'm going with a Toshiba XA2. Not only is it a great HD DVD player, but one of the best upconverting players as well. I believe it is the cheapest upconverting player that uses that much respected Silicon Optix Reon VX video processing chip. (same component used in $2000 outboard video processors)

HD-DVD plays regular cd's. Blu-ray, nope.

It's such a big list, it will not be suprising to see Blu-ray become a sony pictures only format for the PS3 user base. Similiar to the PSP's proprietary format movie discs. Of course the portable player has protability on its' side…. nah, maybe Blu-ray will just die a slow, painful death.

It would make sense for them to get some people on board in China/Taiwan though.

We're already going into May, and as was pointed out by WM, can someone produce and deliver something before the holiday? With no QC issues? Coming from Taiwan… Maybe, maybe not.

Sony is scaling down the tech spec to make cheaper BR players, which they claim will ship in June, with a price drop to rival HD DVD by X-mas, and add the 1 yr. price cut for PS3 into the equation. Sammy said they'll also price cut. Whatever the cost, Sony's ramped up blue diode production.

Current financials: Sony's got cash and is making money, in spite of battery problems, etc. Toshiba's got problems with cash, they're losing money in other sectors and are going to have to lower expectations for at least another quarter.

BR owners mainly miss out only on titles from Universal and it's taken them a year to get some decent titles out of their library. The BR exclusive studios are making cash on BR's momentum. There's little reason for them to go neutral unless there's a clear shift in the market, and at the moment, Walmart's potential impact is merely on paper, leaving Sony with cash in its pockets and time to do something to bolster their standalone sales.

Oh yes, and Arthur, check your spelling mate: cheeper/cheaper, triple, tripple…

Hmmm, if WM has their X-mas wish, they'll be selling HD DVDs like Tribbles! ;-)

The market share potential has already driven companies to take losses to capture this market.

“We are sorry to correct the statement that we have two million HD-DVD players order from Wal-Mart and manufactured by China Great Wall Group. The actuality is that we had not received yet. We are asked to provide the schedule to Wal-Mart and cost to determine the quantity even more than two million, if the cost is good enough and timing is correct. So the capacity is under consideration. Any qualified manufactured base group will be welcome. “

http://www.fuhyuan.com/ev/action/main.asp?news_id1=34123&Action=Show“ title=”http://www.fuhyuan.com/ev/action/main.asp?news_id1=34123&Action=Show“ target=”_blank” ref=”nofollow”>http://www.fuhyuan.com/ev/action/main.asp?news_id1…

So it does look like Wal-Mart IS IN FACT shopping for sub $200 players!! This does not bode well for Blu-Ray…

Since Blu-ray currently in theory can handle up to 200Gb currently, and HD DVD currently in theory handle up to 150Gb I doubt the 50Gb post was about current theoretical maximums, but based off the actual current data limits that are built into each spec. It is possible they were talking about the tripple layer HD-DVD disks; however, there are two problems with that. First why wouldn't they point out it's 51Gb of data? All other mentions of the tripple layer brag about that extra 1Gb as it would give HD-DVD a small advantage. Secondly it isn't officialy part of the format yet, and as new hardware would be needed to read them, all older HD-DVD players would not function with new disks. Thus why would they mention something that no one has access to. Occam's razor should apply.

Everyone also needs to recognize that this new 51 GB TL disc can't even be ratified 'til the end of the year. That means IF they even started to make sure the NEW HD DVD players can read them, it probably couldn't be produced 'til 6 months after that. Now, that would most likely mean everyone that bought a HD DVD player would need to buy another one just to play 51GB TL discs. That still doesn't increase the big bandwidth issue HD DVD has (30Mbps).

It just seems like HD DVD fans are too emotional wrapped up in this format war to see the dire straights HD DVD is in at this point due to poor planning and an inferior format.