Skip to main content

2020 Golden Globes could herald the first Best Picture Oscar win by a streamer

Just a few years ago, the notion of a Netflix movie winning an Academy Award in the prestigious “Best Picture” category seemed far-fetched at best. And yet, here we are, entering the awards season with not one, but multiple Netflix films vying for top honors at the Golden Globe Awards — and that could mean big things for the streaming service in this year’s Oscar race.

Historically, the Golden Globe Awards have accurately predicted the winner in the Oscars’ Best Picture category 43 times out of 65 possible opportunities. That’s a success rate of a little more than 66%, which isn’t too shabby.

Of course, it’s worth noting that the Golden Globe Awards have two chances to pick the winner each year, since it awards films in both the “Drama” and “Musical or Comedy” categories — although it’s the drama group that overlaps most often with the Oscars’ Best Picture nominees.

Netflix

This year, three of the five Golden Globe nominees in the drama category are Netflix films: Martin Scorsese’s mob drama The Irishman, Noah Baumbach’s relationship drama Marriage Story (see above), and the biographical drama The Two Popes. In the musical and comedy category, Eddie Murphy’s Dolemite is my Name is also nominated for a Golden Globe.

Based on odds alone, the Golden Globe Awards have put Netflix in a very good position to take home its first Best Picture Oscar — but that’s not the only factor working in the streaming service’s favor.

Already one of 2019’s most lauded films, The Irishman also happens to be directed by one of the most acclaimed filmmakers of all time, Martin Scorsese. The veteran director is currently tied for second on the all-time list of Best Director nominees at the Academy Awards, with his eight nominations in the category ranking only behind the 12 that William Wyler received. (Scorsese remains tied with eight-time nominee Billy Wilder on that list, but could take sole control of second place with an Oscar nomination this year.)

The Irishman | Official Teaser

So how do “Best Director” nominations relate to Best Picture wins? Well, the two categories are linked pretty closely, it turns out.

Of the 91 films that have won Best Picture” Oscars the directors of those films have won the “Best Director” Oscar 65 times. That means that the film made by the winner of the Best Director Oscar takes home the top prize at the Academy Award more than 71% of the time.

Netflix has also seemingly stacked the deck when it comes to Oscar winners and nominees in the casts of the four films vying for Golden Globe Awards. The cast of The Irishman alone has taken home four Oscars collectively, while the other three films feature a long list of past nominees and one winner: The Two Popes co-star Anthony Hopkins.

Dolemite Is My Name | Official Trailer | Netflix

So, although the Golden Globe Awards aren’t a surefire predictor of the Academy Awards’ top honor, there’s a lot to suggest that this year’s “Best Picture” Oscar could be headed to a Netflix movie.

A win at the Golden Globe Awards could make that possibility even more likely for one of the streamer’s projects, setting up this year’s ceremony as a particularly important one when it comes to the balance of power in Hollywood.

The 77th annual Golden Globe Awards will air at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on Sunday, January 5, on NBC.

Editors' Recommendations

Rick Marshall
A veteran journalist with more than two decades of experience covering local and national news, arts and entertainment, and…
Oscar nominations 2020: The complete list of Academy Award nominees
the irishman netflix visual effects interview digital de aging robert niro feature

Todd Phillips' controversial film Joker led the nominees for the 92nd Academy Awards with 11 nominations, including Best Actor and Best Director nods for Joaquin Phoenix and Phillips, respectively, and a Best Picture nod.

The nominations, announced Monday morning by actors John Cho and Issa Rae, included many of the buzziest films of the year and a few big surprises, including Taika Waititi's Nazi Germany spoof, Jojo Rabbit, which earned six nominations, including Best Picture.

Read more
Netflix dominates 2020 Oscar nominations, but surprises and snubs persist
Joaquin Phoenix as the Joker in "Joker" (2019).

The nominations for the 92nd Academy Awards were announced January 13, and much like prior years, the list of Oscar contenders is full of surprises -- not all of them good.

First and foremost among the highlights of the 2020 Academy Award nominations was the sudden dominance of Netflix, which earned 24 nominations across all of the categories, giving it the most nominations of any movie studio. Sony Pictures finished second in total nominations, buoyed largely by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' affinity for Joker, Todd Phillips' controversial drama that earned 11 nominations.

Read more
Golden Globe Awards send a message to Netflix: It’s not your time yet
The Irishman

Going into the 2020 Golden Globe Awards, the prevailing question was not so much whether Netflix would have a good night, but rather how big of a night the streaming service would have. With 16 nominations spread across four films that spanned both genres and generations of actors and filmmakers, the deck was seemingly stacked in the streamer's favor.

And yet, in the aftermath of a ceremony that saw Netflix win in just one major movie category, the message sent by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association -- and perhaps Hollywood in general -- to the industry-leading streamer seems clear: You're not welcome at the adults' table yet.

Read more