Skip to main content

Now you can Google which movies will be a hit

GoogleYou may think you can predict how good a movie is going to be based on just the trailer, cast, and producers involved… but the answer is still more complex than you’d like. On the industry side, tons of market research systems via surveys, tracking polls, and other analytic services attempt to check in with the health of a particular release ahead of its debut in theaters. As it turns out, all these factors are more complicated than we need to make things. If studios wanted see how their upcoming summer blockbuster will do, all they had to do was Google it.

In a Google AdWords post by Andrea Chen, Google’s Principal Industry Analyst, Media and Entertainment, the company introduced a new report titled “Quantifying Movie Magic with Google Search” that explains just how Google can be used to predict the future box office success of any upcoming movie.

Recommended Videos

Looking at the financial performance and Google searches relating to 99 of last year’s most popular movies, Chen explained that even the ways in which people search for information about movies can help suggest whether a particular movie is headed towards success. “During slower box office weeks, we see more searches on generic terms (such as ‘new movies’ or ‘movie tickets’),” Chen writes, adding that searches on weeks leading up to big tentpole movies, people tend be more specific. “For tentpole film releases, marketers have the ability to capture more interest by advertising on title-related search terms, whereas for non-tentpole releases it is important to advertise on more generic terms.”

When people search for specific movies can be important as well. “In the seven day window prior to a film’s release date, if a film receives 250,000 search queries more than a similar film, the film with more queries is likely to perform up to $4.3M better during opening weekend,” Chen explains. “When looking at search ad click volume, if a film has 20,000 more paid clicks than a similar film, it is expected to bring in up to $7.5M more during opening weekend.”

However, it’s the searches further ahead of release that may be most important for predicting whether a movie will be a hit or a bomb. “While we see more search volume in weeks closer to the release week, the Google and YouTube search patterns four weeks out from the release have the strongest link to moviegoer intent,” Chen writes.” At four weeks out, trailer search volume on Google coupled with both the franchise status of the movie and seasonality can predict opening weekend box office revenue with 94% accuracy.”

If nothing else, this report suggests that Hollywood has a head start not only on knowing what the audience is looking forward to watching ahead of time, but also on how to save on costs in future. Since the Google service is free, perhaps studios will start spending less on trend analysts and box office watchers.

Graeme McMillan
Former Digital Trends Contributor
A transplant from the west coast of Scotland to the west coast of America, Graeme is a freelance writer with a taste for pop…
3 underrated Netflix movies you should watch this weekend (May 16–18)
Michael Fassbender, Domhnall Gleeson, and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Frank

Feel like you've already watched everything worth seeing on Netflix? Think again! Behind all the flashy blockbusters and trending originals lies a stash of underrated films that didn't get the spotlight but absolutely deserve it. These hidden gems are perfect for viewers in the mood for something different and who don't exactly want to endlessly scroll through countless choices on the streaming giant.

Whether it's an offbeat comedy, an indie sci-fi flick, or a gripping international thriller, there's a unique offering for every type of audience. So this weekend, skip the usual suspects and go off-script. For those willing to venture beyond the algorithm's usual suggestions, these underappreciated movies might just be what your weekend watchlist is missing.

Read more
3 action movies on Amazon Prime Video you need to watch in May 2025
Jason Lee as Bruce Lee, arms out, cuts on his chest with mirrors behind him in Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story.

Looking to watch a cool action movie? There are three action movies on Amazon Prime Video to watch in May 2025. One is a biographical action drama, one is available for free even if you don’t have an Amazon Prime subscription, and one is part of a massive franchise with one of the biggest action movie stars of this generation.

Learn about these three movies and what makes them worth watching. Bookmark them for viewing when you have time and watch these badass characters do the heavy lifting. 

Read more
3 action movies on Netflix you need to watch in May 2025
The Joker and Batman sit across from one another at a table.

May marks the unofficial start to summer. In Hollywood, that means it's summer blockbuster season. Now is when the studios release their tentpole films to generate box office returns that approach $1 billion. F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, Superman, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps are projected to be the summer's biggest movies. Netflix is getting in on the action with The Old Guard 2.

Speaking of Netflix, the streamer has hundreds of action movies that satisfy those blockbuster cravings. One of those movies is The Dark Knight, a brilliant Batman story. Check out The Dark Knight and two more action movies in May.

Read more