There are about 6.9 billion people currently living in the world, and Facebook is projected to capture close to 14% of that number by the end of this summer. According to a new study, the Facebook user count will hit 1 billion by the month of August.
Gregory Lyons, a senior analyst over at the iCrossing global digital marketing agency, is the man behind the impressive 1 billion user projection. Currently, Facebook is well over 800 milion active users according to the social networking giant’ recent statistics, but can the company really tack on another 200 million users in 7 months? Lyons seems to think that is a possibility.
The analyst based his projection on Facebook’s current growth rate: “Using a process of linear regression on the data from the end of 2008 onwards we expect Facebook to hit a billion active users around August 2012. Looking at the data from 2006-mid 2008 it looks like Facebook was growing at an exponential rate, however more recent data suggest it’s growing in a linear fashion.”
If you look back in 2011, Facebook hit its 700 million mark in May thanks to a large number of new users from countries such as Brazil, the Phillipines, Mexico and India. Brazil and India both ditched Google’s now defunct social network Orkut for Facebook. Lyons points out that, though Facebook growth hasn’t been as frantic in early adopting countries like the United States or the UK, large developing countries have begun to acquire a taste for Facebook. Brazil’s Facebook growth has jumped form 13 million to 30 million, and India has grown from 22 million to 36 million in the past 9 months. Those big numbers make up only 3% and 16% of India and Brazil’s population respectively; there’s plenty of room for Facebook to stretch its feet in those countries. Based on the numbers, it doesn’t look like the Facebook fad will be going the way of Myspace anytime soon.
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