Astronomers have made a startling discovery: a medium-sized asteroid that could potentially impact the Earth within the next 10 years. However, experts agree that the public does not have to be concerned about this just yet, as space agencies are still in the process of collecting more data to determine the exact path of the object.
Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile, and is projected to come close to Earth in December 2032.
“Shortly after its discovery, automated asteroid warning systems determined that the object had a very small chance of potentially impacting Earth on 22 December 2032,” the European Space Agency (ESA) writes. “2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 m and 100 m wide. An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region.”
With a 1.2% estimated probability of impacting the Earth, that makes this asteroid of immediate concern to astronomers who track potentially hazardous objects. “Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale: a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers and the public,” ESA says. However, the agency emphasizes that the probability of impact estimations can change significantly as more data is collected: “It is important to remember that an asteroid’s impact probability often rises at first before quickly dropping to zero after additional observations.”
Finding an asteroid of this size with this high a probability of impact is a rare event, and the 2024 YR4 is now at the top of ESA’s near-Earth object Risk List and a similar list from NASA’s Sentry program. However, the relatively large risk calculation is related to the large uncertainty of early asteroid observations. The likelihood is that as more observations of the asteroid are made and its trajectory can be calculated more accurately, the chances of it impacting Earth will go down, possibly to nil.
Experts who are involved in tracking the asteroid, like David Rankin of the Catalina Sky Survey, have assured people that they don’t need to concern themselves with this asteroid yet. “People should absolutely not worry about this yet,” Rankin said to Space.com. “Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us.”
