Skip to main content

Analysts are cutting Apple Watch sales forecasts

The iPhone was revolutionary to say the least, and although the iPad wasn’t as big of an impact, it was also a huge success. However, the Apple Watch, which debuted only a couple of months ago, isn’t as magical to consumers.

Andy Hargreaves of Pacific Crest cut his Apple Watch forecast for 2015 from 11 million to 10.5 million. A mere half a million doesn’t seem like something to cry over, but Hargreaves warns that next year’s “soft follow-on sales” will be the bigger problem. He is now estimating Apple will move 21 million watches in 2016, which is down from his earlier estimate of 24 million.

Recommended Videos

Hargreaves isn’t the only analyst to cut estimates. Back in May, UBS referred to the product launch as “somewhat botched” and cut its 2016 forecast by 23 percent to 31 million due to “tepid interest.”

It’s not all doom and gloom for Apple though. The Apple Watch is likely to smash the competition for a while based on these estimates.

So why isn’t the Apple Watch setting the world on fire? It’s simply because smartwatches in general are not “game changing” in any way. It is a cool way to check notifications and pay for a coffee at Starbucks, but the cost doesn’t justify those small conveniences.

Smartwatches were around long before the Apple Watch, and they were never all that successful to begin with. Add in the fact that Apple didn’t reinvent the smartwatch much like it did with the iPhone for smartphones, and it was easy to see that the Apple Watch wasn’t going to have as big of an impact as the media hyped it to be.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Apple though. The Apple Watch is likely to smash the competition for a while based on these estimates. Google’s Android Wear had a one year head start and could barely muster up 1 million in total sales from several manufacturers. The Pebble was by far the most popular smartwatch before the Apple Watch, and it achieved only 1 million in sales as of February 2015.

One of Apple’s advantages is media coverage. You rarely hear about Android Wear or the Pebble whenever wearables are mentioned in the mainstream media. Most consumers don’t even know they exist.

Even more good news for Apple is the fact that the iPhone is doing so well. Hargreaves upped his 2015 and 2016 profit forecasts for the company by 3.1 percent and 3.8 percent respectively because of the iPhone 6’s tremendous success.

So the Apple Watch might not be on every iPhone owner’s wrist, but we’re not ready to call it a flop just yet. 31.5 million watches between now and 2016 is pretty darn good in our opinion.

Robert Nazarian
Former Digital Trends Contributor
Robert Nazarian became a technology enthusiast when his parents bought him a Radio Shack TRS-80 Color. Now his biggest…
We just got our best look yet at the Google Pixel Watch 4
Active watch face in Rosebush color scheme on Pixel Watch 3.

The Google Pixel Watch 4 is the next entry in Google's celebrated wearable lineup, and we just got a great look at a set of new leaks. The images come courtesy of Steve Hemmerstoffer, better known as OnLeaks, as well as 91mobiles. In addition to 5K renders, we also have a 360-degree video that lets us examine the phone from multiple angles.

Right off the bat, you'll notice the Pixel Watch 4 hasn't shifted away from the circular design of the Pixel Watch 3 in any major way, but it does look to have smaller bezels. That's not surprising, given the ongoing push across the entire industry for smaller bezels on every display.

Read more
Apple Watch saves another life by helping detect woman’s fast-spreading cancer
The Apple Watch Series 10 and the Apple Watch Series 3, seen from the front.

There are countless heartwarming stories about different ways the Apple Watch has helped saved people's lives. In addition to the emergency SOS and fall detection features, the Watch offers a suite of insights which can help identify precursors to life-threatening diseases. Recently, a similar story made news when a woman's cancer was caught, thanks to active alerts from an Apple Watch 10.

Amanda Faulkner, a consulting psychiatrist from New Zealand, recently narrated her story where her Apple Watch 10 helped diagnose a rare form of blood cancer, which, if left undiagnosed, would have left her dead in a matter of few days. Faulkner told the New Zealand Herald that her Apple Watch notified her of her unusually high resting heart rate of around 90 beats per minute -- which would typically be around 55 for her.

Read more
Google rolls out pulse loss detection to Pixel Watch 3 users
Pulse detect on Pixel watch 3

Google has begun rolling out its Loss of Pulse Detection feature to Pixel Watch 3 owners in the United States. This potentially life-saving feature uses the watch's optical heart rate sensors to detect if the wearer's pulse ceases at any point. That can include instances like cardiac arrest or other heart-related abnormalities. When these issues are detected, the watch can automatically contact emergency services should the wearer become unresponsive. The rollout is gradual, with availability expected to reach all users over the next few weeks.

Initially announced alongside the Pixel Watch 3 in August 2024, the feature was already available in several European countries. However, its US debut required clearance from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before being released which was granted in late February 2025. Now that it's headed out to new and old Pixel Watch 3 owners, now might be a good time to invest in one should be looking for an alternative to the smartwatch you might currently be wearing.

Read more