2009 Prediction Results


Each year we try to predict what will happen in our industry and each year we usually miss the mark. On today’s show we take a look back at our predictions for 2009.

Today’s Show:


Ara’s Predictions

Netbooks will become popular as portable A/V devices – Wrong! As it turns out Netbooks are not nearly as popular as we thought they were going to be.  Maybe it was the performance or the size of the keyboard. Regardless, I think this was a missed marketing opportunity by computer manufacturers. Perhaps Apple’s tablet may be the device I was hoping that netbooks would be.

Movie Download services will Blossom – Maybe not quite blossom, but there is definitely a bud on the vine. Netflix is everywhere, iTunes is doing quite well too. Throw in Amazon and VOD you can see a healthy ecosystem for movie downloads.

Corollary Prediction to Above – Studios realizing that consumers are staying home and downloading will shorten the release window. Release windows remained about the same but we now have way more Day and Date releases for VOD. Its kind of a corollary to the corollary.

Blu-ray Movie Prices will be on par with their DVD counterparts – Nailed this one! Harry Potter recent release for $15 at Amazon.

Digital Transition will go smoothly – For the vast majority of people the switch went quite smoothly. Even though I lost four local channels here in LA. I wish KTTV, KABC, KCAL, and KCOP would get it together and boost their power already.

DirecTV and/or Dish Network will start transmitting Dolby Digital Plus Audio Tracks on some channels – Well this didn’t happen. But I am still dreaming. You really can tell the difference between AC3 and DD+.  Maybe this year?

Braden’s Predictions

New release downloads will go “all you can eat” – Bummer.  As hard as I tried I couldn’t will this into existence.

Portable Blu-ray players will hit the shelves – Wrong again.  Not sure why we haven’t seen these all over the place yet, but maybe Blu-ray just hasn’t hit the penetration level needed for the portable option to make much sense yet.

A true iPhone alternative will emerge – In a world of doesn’t, Droid Does.  I have a Droid and love it to pieces.  Sure, there are things the iPhone does better than the Driod, likewise there are things the Droid does better.  But it is a true alternative that has some muscle behind it.  Nailed this one.

Blu-ray prices will fall to be the same as DVD – We’ve seen Blu-ray movies on sale for less than DVD in some cases.  It’s still true that Blu-ray movies typically release at a premium when they come out on Tuesday, but they come down quickly and often hit the same price as DVD within a few weeks.  We’d like to see them release for the same price, but this was a good prediction.

Something really exciting will happen in TV technology – Uh, well, there was… No wait, remember when… Alright, so nothing all that memorable happened this year.  2010 for sure!

HT Guys