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Predictions: Kinect will outsell Move, eclipse the launch of Wii and Xbox 360

Microsoft Xbox 360 and Kinect bundleSony may be celebrating the success of the PlayStation Move too soon.  After a successful debut on the market, Move will now have to compete with Kinect, and analysts predict it’s going to lose to Microsoft’s motion-based gaming device.

The International Data Corporation (IDC) released a statement this morning that based on a market survey, about a million consumers will favor the Xbox 360’s Kinect sensors. “Americans will buy 2.25 million to 3 million Kinect sensors for their Microsoft Xbox 360 video games consoles in the fourth calendar quarter of 2010. The number of Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3) Move motion controllers sold should range between 2 million and 2.25 million by the end of this year.”

With its release only three days away, it looks like Kinect is going to be this Holiday season’s Wii, and is already nearly double its retail price of $150 on Amazon. Microsoft’s chief of staff for  its interactive entertainment business, Aaron Greenberg, is fueling these projections, telling Eurogamer he expects the Kinect’s launch to “be the largest launch we’ve ever had as a business.” Greenburg also alleges that November 4 will see the Kinect outsell the original launches of the Wii and the Xbox 360 – which is a mighty bold claim. But if he’s right, those hoping to buy one as a Christmas gift might want to prepare themselves for long lines and jacked up prices. On the plus side, this could mean it’s easier for PS3 owners to get their hands on a Move.