If you frequently buy loot boxes in Overwatch, but mostly wind up with duplicates and less than epic items, you’ve probably wondered: What are the odds anyway? We now have a clearer picture — thanks to a Chinese gaming law requiring companies to disclose odds in games that feature “loot box” systems like Overwatch.
The breakdown was originally posted on Overwatch‘s Chinese site, and reported by news site Meta Bomb. Each supply drop contains four items, and one of those items has to be at least of rare distinction. The likelihood of acquiring an epic item is once in every 5.5 loot boxes opened. Legendary items are only likely to appear, on average, once per 13.5 boxes. When broken down into percentages, you have an 18.2 percent chance to obtain an epic item, and a 7.4 percent chance to get your hands on a legendary item.
Since Blizzard was only required to disclose these figures for the Chinese version of Overwatch, it’s unclear if these odds apply to all regions. However, it’s hard to imagine that Blizzard would switch things up region to region.
The new Chinese gaming law was passed in December, but didn’t take effect until May 1.
Prior to Blizzard revealing Overwatch loot box odds, Riot Games released Hextech Chest drop rates for League of Legends. And Perfect World, the Chinese distributor of Valve’s Dota 2, announced drop rates for the Treasure of the Dota 2 Asia Championships 2017, the only “loot box” available to Chinese players at this time.
Blizzard also revealed drop rates for Hearthstone card packs in China, although the new info didn’t tell us much more than what fans have already managed to deduce over the years. Each card pack contains a rare card, an epic comes in about one of every five packs, and a legendary in one of every 20 packs, on average. Blizzard also claimed that as you open more packs without receiving a legendary, the chances of you finding one increases. Hearthstone players had more or less figured that out already, and have dubbed it the “pity timer.”
Like the Overwatch odds, the Hearthstone drop rates can only technically be applied to the Chinese version of the game — but again, it seems unlikely that the algorithm differs by region.
Find an item at last? Great! Soup up your system for Overwatch and get going. The only outstanding question is how to integrate it into your strategy; fortunately, we’ve got some Overwatch tips and tricks for you. Good luck!
