Skip to main content

Transistors may stop getting smaller, but Moore’s Law isn’t dead yet

Within just five years, the latest International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors predicts that researchers furthering the pursuit of electrical performance the world over will no longer be able to rely on shrinking transistors for their gains. That doesn’t mean that one of computing’s oldest laws will be broken, though, as they’ll find that power from somewhere — it just won’t be from the same old sources.

If you’ve been paid attention to computing at all in the past half a century, chances are you’ve heard of Moore’s law, which predicts that the number of transistors on integrated circuits will continue to increase every two years for the foreseeable future.

Recommended Videos

At the time Gordon Moore made this prediction in 1965, it was doubling every 24 months and, the pace has slightly slowed since then, we do still see progress roughly in line with that prediction. The latest generation of graphics cards from Nvidia and AMD brought us down to the 14nm level for graphics processors (GPU).

But there is a limit to how small transistors can become (we can’t build at a level smaller than an atom), and therefore how dense they can be packed on single processors. More importantly though, there’s a limit to how economically viable it is to continue shrinking the dies that these transistors sit on and that’s what we’re facing in a few years’ time.

Drops in die size proceeding by several tens of nanometres a few decades ago, which meant being able to cram a lot more transistors onto a single silicon wafer, meaning big cost savings compared to the generation that went before. That meant that advancements to improve performance were much more cost effective.

Now, with just a few nanometers sperating generations, that difference in cost and performance is much less stark. That’s part of the reason that it’s been a while since any hardware generation has really blown us away.

So what can we do to keep this tech-train moving when 2021 rolls around? The suggestion is that the industry will move on from the current FinFET design transistors to something known as gate-all-around. These are an advancement on the FinFET process and can even be built upon a technology known as nanowires, which could start to move us beyond silicon as a building block for our favorite chips.

Fortunately for Moore’s law, it may survive, because this technology makes it possible for transistors to go vertical. There may end up being an issue with thermals, but that’s where clever future tech like ‘electric blood’ might come in handy.

In short, the next decade is going to see some real innovation in computing, far more than we’ve seen in the recent past, and it could mean that the desktops, laptops and smart devices of the future feature very different hardware under the hood than they do today.

For all the details, read through the Semiconductor Industry Association’s report on the state of semiconductor development.

Jon Martindale
Jon Martindale is a freelance evergreen writer and occasional section coordinator, covering how to guides, best-of lists, and…
Early Prime Day deal: Samsung’s 27-inch Odyssey G3 at its annual low price
Samsung Odyssey G3 gaming monitor on desk with keyboard and headset.

If you're ready to upgrade your monitor, this Samsung deal over at Amazon just might be your best bet. The 27-inch version of Samsung's Odyssey G3 is $130 right now, a full $100 off its regular $230 price and its lowest price of the year. It's a part of early Prime Day deals and a good sampling of what we can expect for the shopping holiday, which officially lands on July 8th. Tap the button below to see it for yourself or keep reading to see why we like this deal and why this should be your next monitor.

Buy Now

Read more
An elegant Mac app has turned my basic tasks into a whole lot of fun
Who knew switching between apps could be so much easier and elegant?
Employing the Dory app switcher on a MacBook Air

The concept of an app switcher tool is rather odd. After all, why would you need a tool for jumping between apps, when the Command+Tab shortcut works just fine and the three-finger swipe opens the Mission Control on the Mac? Well, there are solutions that work better. 

Second, when you bring the mouse and keyboard combo into the picture, the fluid convenience of the trackpad gesture flies out the window. Over the years, the developer community has produced some real app switcher gems. 

Read more
Upgrade to the Alienware 18 Area-51 gaming laptop with RTX 5070 Ti — $500 off!
The Alienware 18 Area-51 Gaming Laptop on a white background.

You should be ready to spend a lot if you want a powerful gaming laptop, but you should also be on the lookout for potential savings. Now's a great time to check out Alienware deals because of Dell's Black Friday in July sale, which includes a fantastic offer for the Alienware 18 Area-51 gaming laptop. This configuration with the Nvidia GeForce RTX 5070 Ti graphics card is down from $3,300 to $2,800, which is still expensive, but you wouldn't want to miss this chance at $500 in savings. You have to hurry though, as stocks may run out at any moment!

Buy Now

Read more