In the wake of the high definition disc format war between Blu-ray and the vanquished HD-DVD, many industry watchers were expecting a flood sales of both Blu-ray players and Blu-ray titles as consumers got off the fence and finally began investing in high-definition gear, assured that the Blu-ray format wasn’t going to go away overnight. Instead, the market has shown comparatively tepid interest in Blu-ray: sales of Blu-ray players have picked up, but it’s hardly been the landslide that Sony (and its partners) may have wished for, as consumers have increasingly deferred high-definition purchases, looked at inexpensive upscaling players for traditional DVDs, and looked at downloadable video, bypassing discs entirely
Futuresource Consulting has released its projections (PDF) for Blu-ray sales for 2008, as well as its projections for Blu-ray market share through the year 2012…and it says Blu-ray is right on track. According to Futuresource, American consumers should snap up 45 million Blu-ray titles during 2008, and the firm expects that by 21012 between 40 and 50 percent of video disc sales in the U.S. and Western Europe will be Blu-ray.
Futuresource says between 5 and 6 percent of “big titles” are already sold in Blu-ray format, and by the fourth quarter of the year that might reach as high as 10 or 12 percent on selected titles. Futuresource notes, however, that studios have so far been relatively disappointed with Blu-ray title sales, although the studios are continuing to push content onto Blu-ray and expand their catalogs. “All eyes are on Warner’s initiative to cut catalogue prices,” said Futuresource lead analyst Mai Hoang, in a statement. “Other studios and the retailers are going to be watching consumer reaction to this very carefully.”
Futuresource also attributes upticks in Blu-ray sales to growing consumer awareness of the format, reduced hardware prices, and PS3 owners who are increasingly using the consoles for video playback.
“I would be amazed if we don’t see a Blu-ray player in the U.S. at or below $250 by the end of this year,” said Futuresource’s Jack Wetherill. “In order to stimulate consumer traffic in the holiday season who’s to say there won’t be a product at closer to $200? In the UK, player prices will fall to around £149 and there may be one or two companies trying to better that.”
