The format war between Blu-ray and HD DVD might be raging—prepare for another round of chest-thumping and professional wrestling-style calldowns once CES gets started in Las Vegas—but market analysis firm ABI Research is trying to look beyond the immediate battle and see where the technologies might end up in a few years. One forecast: by 2012, universal drives capable of reading both high-definition formats will account for about two-thirds of a $2 billion market by 2012.
“Few universal drives are sold today,” said principal analyst Steve Wilson, in a statement, “partly because of their higher price. But those prices will fall to about the same as Blu-ray players by 2009, and we forecast universal player sales to exceed Blu-ray the following year.”
Part of the cost reduction for universal players in PCs will come from processor manufacturers integrating HD support into their chipsets, rather than relying on discrete graphics processors to support HD playback. Intel and AMD have already announced integrated HD video support in their processor roadmaps for 2008.
ABI Research also believes the cost of writable high-definition discs will inhibit their adoption as a storage medium, with most consumers sticking with the 4 GB of storage offered on standard DVDs for swapping and storing everyday files.
