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GPT-5: release date, claims of AGI, pushback, and more

Based on reports earlier this year, GPT-5 is the expected next major LLM (Large Language Model) as released by OpenAI. Given the massive success of ChatGPT, OpenAI is continuing the progress of development on future models powering its AI chatbot.

GPT-5, in theory, would aim to be a major improvement over GPT-4, and even though very little is known about it. Here’s everything that’s been rumored so far.

Release date

OpenAI has continued a rapid rate of progress on its LLMs. GPT-4 debuted on March 14, 2023, which came just four months after GPT-3.5 launched alongside ChatGPT.

A report original stated that training on GPT-5 was originally supposed to complete this December, which would put its potential launch sometime in 2024.

i have been told that gpt5 is scheduled to complete training this december and that openai expects it to achieve agi.

which means we will all hotly debate as to whether it actually achieves agi.

which means it will.

— Siqi Chen (@blader) March 27, 2023

OpenAI has officially stated that GPT-4.5 will be introduced in “September or October 2023” as an “intermediate version between GPT-4 and the upcoming GPT-5.”

But the latest official statement from OpenAI claims that the training of GPT-5 has not begun and is not on the near timeline. The correction was made to address some on the training of more advanced models beyond GPT-4. Despite the fact that OpenAI once called GPT-5 “upcoming,” it apparently appears to no longer be on the radar.

Availability

We’ve yet to see how OpenAI will tier out availability to new models. Right now, GPT-3.5 is available in ChatGPT, while GPT-4 is reserved for ChatGPT Plus. We can assume, however, that GPT-5 will come to ChatGPT Plus first. Whether or not these more advanced models will ever trickle down to the free ChatGPT tool, we’ll have to wait and see.

It should be noted that spin-off tools like Bing Chat are being based on the latest models, with Bing Chat secretly launching with GPT-4 before that model was even announced. We could see a similar thing happen with GPT-5 when we eventually get there, but we’ll have to wait and see how things roll out.

Will GPT-5 achieve AGI?

AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is hard to define as a topic, as it refers to a completely hypothetical concept. But some early reports are already claiming that GPT-5 will achieve the general level of intelligence that could be considered AGI.

Even so, most experts claim that AGI is still many years out. Based on the survey from forecasters at Metaculus, true AGI isn’t expected to be reached until October 2032. There’s a much sooner than previous forecasts, but it’s also not 2024.

Interesting find: One year ago, forecasters estimated AGI to be ready by 2057.

Given the rapid pace of AI these past few weeks, AGI is now expected to be ready by October 2032. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/vHp6izeBAI

— Rowan Cheung (@rowancheung) March 28, 2023

Pushback to GPT-5

The development of GPT-5 is already underway, but there’s already been a move to halt its progress. A petition signed by over a thousand public figures and tech leaders has been published, requesting a pause in development on anything beyond GPT-4. Significant people involved in the petition include Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, Andrew Yang, and many more.

The eye of the petition is clearly targeted at GPT-5 as concerns over the technology continue to grow among governments and the public at large.

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Luke Larsen
Luke Larsen is the Senior editor of computing, managing all content covering laptops, monitors, PC hardware, Macs, and more.
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