If there’s one thing we in the videogame biz prefer to gloss over, it’s precisely that: The fact that videogames are, in fact, a business. And when you look at some of the hard numbers surrounding the industry, well? it’s a safe bet things will be getting very interesting, very soon.
Undoubtedly, what you saw at E3 2006 was a seemingly endless, candy-colored parade of awe-inducing outings from Tekken 6 and Metal Gear Solid 4 to Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3: Corruption. What I saw instead was an industry in transition, domination over which is now potentially anyone’s game going forward, as next-generation hardware manufacturers’ own sales data and pricing strategies reveal.
It’s a strange place to be, considering that keeping tabs on where things really stood wasn’t so difficult just a scant year or two ago. Sony held firm sway over the marketplace via the unstoppable PlayStation 2 juggernaut. Microsoft was (oddly enough) the scrappy underdog who’d resorted to overspending, pouring billions into R&D and promotions in hopes of increasing its market share through the Xbox and Xbox 360. As for Nintendo, the company’s GameCube just kept chugging along, a distant third-place contender to other machines, and one starved for third-party software at that.
But this summer, strangely, a glimpse at the gaming sector finds the proverbial ball officially back in play.
Observe.
Insiders generally agree that 10 million units sold is the tipping point for any gaming console in terms of gaining retail traction. Get this many systems into the marketplace, and it’s a safe bet the public’s hunger for content will fuel a steady stream of software releases, which in turn creates more demand for the hardware itself, perpetuating the cycle.
Despite hardware shortages and criticisms of the Xbox 360’s initial software lineup, it’s a milestone Microsoft, previously a second-place finisher, has the distinct potential of reaching before the unit’s competitors even begin shipping in Q4 2006. A respectable 5 million machines will no doubt be in overjoyed enthusiasts’ hands by the end of June alone.
Oh, and online networking service Xbox Live, which serves both Xbox and Xbox 360 owners? It’s rocking 6 million members, more than any console-specific broadband platform. Suffice it to say the system currently boasts an impressively-sized audience, and one comprised primarily of individuals unlikely to turn their back on a machine they’ve already invested upwards of $400 in.
Meanwhile, Sony’s busy doing all it can to erode its fan base by pricing the PlayStation 3 out of the reach of everyone but diehard gamers or intrigued upper-middle- to upper-class consumers. Paying $499 for a next-generation console with a built-in 20GB hard drive, whiz-bang Cell processor, six-axis motion-sensitive controller and badass Blu-Ray drive is one thing. Finding out you really need to pony up another hundred bucks to truly take advantage of all the gadget offers and enjoy features like HDMI, 1080p visual resolution, WiFi support and a 60GB hard drive, another entirely.
Even on the low end ? and taking into consideration that the company’s generously offering free online networking services to PS3 buyers ? you’re still spending a small fortune.
Lifelong fan of the PlayStation product line or no, what parent is going to buy their child a toy that costs more than their PDA, or, for that matter, a ticket to Rome? How many joystick jocks, already fuming over $60 software price tags, want to drop anywhere from several days’ to a month’s pay on a system that plays many of the same offerings as its competitors? And, truthfully, after Sony Computer Entertainment head Ken Kutaragi’s shocking comments that the system’s selling for too little, who seriously feels like padding the company’s coffers any more than necessary?
All this before you even consider that Grand Theft Auto IV will arrive for the Xbox 360 the same day it does PlayStation 3. Not to mention that Microsoft’s main machine ? selling for hundreds less ? seems to perform just as ably from a technology standpoint with the latest generation of games as its closest rival. There’s literally going to be a gap of at least several years while game designers come to grips with PS3’s capabilities and figure out how the hell they’re financing system-unique developments where titles will play much the same no matter the hardware platform they run on. (Ah, the joys of cutting costs through quick and dirty software ports?) To wit: What’s the point in paying twice the price to enjoy titles like BioShock and NBA Live 07 equally as much?
The upshot being, of course, that there’s no better time for Microsoft to make significant strides towards gaining market share than the present.
Don’t count Nintendo out of the race either. If anything, Japan’s number one son ? who’s vowed to price its Wii console cheaper than competitors ? is on the cusp of a major comeback.
Analysts predict the device, aimed at enticing former fans back into the fold and expanding gaming’s overall audience, will retail somewhere between $199 and $249. Given how well the machine’s two-piece, motion-sensitive control system (which lets you wave, swing and thrust a wireless remote control to cause on-screen characters and objects to react accordingly) handles, heck? You’d almost be insane not to invest in the device, especially with featured titles like Excite Truck, Red Steel and WarioWare: Smooth Moves coming shortly.
Previously, the publisher’s been content to control about 20% of the marketplace and milk a core base of dedicated consumers for millions in profits. But by virtue of the system’s brilliant sticker price and built-in sex appeal alone, the house that built Mario may find its holdings expanding exponentially almost overnight when the unit ships this holiday season. Trust me: Everyone’s going to want one of these things. What’s more, scary as it sounds to classify the unit as such, especially given its not-insignificant price tag, the Wii’s probably the closest thing you’ll see console-wise anytime soon to an impulse buy.
Taken together, it’s enough to throw the industry into a state of semi-chaos. Gaze into the crystal ball, and in the near future, it isn’t hard to see Sony losing its lead, Microsoft and Nintendo gaining ground, and the stage being set for a major three-way conflict.
Whatever happens, though ? win, lose or draw ? I can say one thing with certainty: The next three to five years will be one of the most exciting periods in gaming history, especially for all us bean-counting geeks.
Editors' Recommendations
- Publishers shouldn’t count on ‘redemption arcs’ to save their games
- The pandemic forced fighting games to grow up in 2021
- Xbox PC Game Pass has a big problem — and it isn’t the name
- This adorable, cheap Amazon gaming keyboard is better than name brands
- Call of Duty: Vanguard’s take on World War II can’t outdo a decade-old game
