A noted research firm has altered its predictions for the global smartphone market, with Apple tipped to fuel a bulk of the growth in 2025.
What’s happened: IDC, the respected research and analytics firm that tracks and predicts smartphone shipments, has changed its predictions for smartphone growth based on new data.
- It suggests that the market will now grow 1%, rather than the 0.6% suggested in June, thanks in part to greater certainty over tariffs affecting costs
- Apple is set to drive this growth, with iOS devices (i.e. iPhone) surging 3.9% – up 3.6% in the US, but dipping in China
- AI in smartphones, helping do things like rewrite text, generate images and enhance photos, is set to play a huge part and be present on 30% of phones in the next four years
- The average selling price is set to rise 5%
- Foldable smartphones are set to grow rapidly, but still only making up a small percentage of the market
This is important because it shows economic uncertainty is retreating, and smartphone brands are keen to invest again in new features, like AI, to entice consumers to upgrade and spend more on their latest device.
- The jump in AI use in smartphones shows this is going to be a key battleground for manufacturers – highlighting why Apple is under pressure to improve Apple Intelligence on its phones
- The AI boom is something that consumers need to be careful of – while the proliferation means it’ll be available on cheaper phones, users will need to check privacy settings to understand how much their data can be used for training
- It also hints at a strong consumer response to the iPhone 17 range, tipped to launch in September, especially the rumored iPhone 17 Air
The story so far: Earlier in 2025, IDC saw a 1% growth in Q2 shipments, showing the industry is seeing steady recovery.
- AI in phones soared 344% in smartphone shipments in 2024, as brands like Samsung, Apple and Google made it a key part of their marketing message
- This surge will lessen over time, but become far more part of the mainstream use case for consumers – hinting that the features will become more useful
- iOS’ predicted momentum will be welcomed by Apple users after previous forecasts suggested the US-China trade dispute was likely to impact smartphone growth
- This offsets stories that the iPhone line was struggling due to challenges from foldables and AI integration, an area where Apple has partnered heavily with the likes of OpenAI to bring ChatGPT to its smartphones
Why should I care? The good news is that, despite the overall cost of smartphones rising, your next phone could have the cutting-edge AI features for less. The improved forecast for Apple means it’ll likely hold the space at the front of the premium market for longer, giving it more space to develop key features like Apple Intelligence.
OK, what’s next?
- AI will become an even more integral part of smartphone use
- Manufacturers will need to implement greater safety and privacy measures for using AI to help sell their phones as ‘private’
- If the tariff situation changes again, expect the forecasts to drop too – although the rise of Android devices still seems strong globally, with overall growth set to continue into 2026
