PlayStation 3 Will Ultimately Win Console Wars?

March 9, 2010 By Geoff Duncan

A new report from Strategy Analytics forecasts Sony's PlayStation 3 will become the largest game console platform globally by 2013.

Remember three and a half years ago—yes, we know that’s a long time—when a good portion of the gaming world thought that the so called “next-generation” game console wars were going to be absolutely dominated by Sony, with Microsoft and Nintendo scrambling between themselves for the remainders of the market. Well, that was the second half of 2006, and now it’s the first half of 2010—and market analysis firm Strategy Analytics is now forecasting that the PlayStation 3 will be the dominant game platform globally by 2013…the Wii and the Xbox 360 be damned.

According to Strategy Analytics’s David Mercer, author of the report “Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition,”, the lifetime installed base for PlayStation 3s will reach 127 million units, compared to 103 million units for the so-far-market-leading Nintendo Wii. Mercer bases the forecast on the idea that the PlayStation 3 will likely still be a commercial platform five years after the Wii has been off retailers’ store shelves.

“Nintendo has done a great job with the Wii in bringing console games to new audiences,” said Mercer, in a statement. “But its sales are now falling, particularly in mature markets, and its installed base will peak in 2011. Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014.”

The report also forecasts console says will decline by 9 percent in 2010, with
sales of the Wii, PS3, Xbox 360, and PS2 amounting to 17.5 million, 14 million, 10.5 million, and 5.5 million respectively.

Of course, the art of forecasting game console sales is a tricky thing: nobody except Nintendo believes the Wii was going to be anything but an also-ran, and forthcoming initiatives from Microsoft (Project Natal) and Sony (motion controller and 3D capability) may complicate the existing market. There’s little doubt that Sony’s PlayStation 3 hardware design (leaving aside dicey clock chips) has the potential to stay on the market longer than the Wii and the Xbox 360—after all, the PS2 is still selling. But there are surely no companies more aware of the PS3s potential longevity than Microsoft and Nintendo.

Showing 14 comments

micael at 6:49pm 30th December 2010 Ps3 is a awesome system with free online, blu ray, dvd, and many other features that xbox 360 falls wothout, but I think the ps3 with catch up with the xbox 360, but not so much with teh wii, or at least for now it wont't. Dumb people can't just guess what happens you have to wait and see what will happen.
michael jackson at 6:45pm 30th December 2010 I think the wii has out sold too much for the ps3 or the xbox 360 to catch up. And even with sony move and ms kinect I don't see ssony or ms catching up. They might in 2013 or 2014, but by that time nintendo will maybe have a new system. Wii Hd? Wii 2?
The Guy at 10:00am 16th November 2010 Dylan completely Right i totally agree!!!!!!!!!!!
TheGamerGuide at 9:59am 16th November 2010 Honestly How could the PS3 even think about catching up to the Wii, sales wise. The Wii has more than 25 million more units sold than the Xbox 360 and PS3. Even if they sold two systems for every one Wii system. It would take them till 2013 to catch up and by then nintendo will probably be the first players in 9th generation war.
Theron Robinson at 11:33am 30th October 2010 i think the ps3 isnt as good as the 360 but so much better than wii
Good Info Guide at 8:24am 20th October 2010 The New PlayStation Move Gun and Navigation Controller... The New PlayStation Move Gun and Move Navigation Controller by Burhan playstation gun The company Sony has launched 2 new control system for thin PS3 console that has a lot of demand where it is also affecting a survey whether they control it is necess...
Thomas at 7:00pm 10th March 2010 I think Sony will be the last console by 2013 left in this generation, and thats not a good thing. If MS release a new console in 2012 they'll wipe the PS3's power off the map. New hardware is already well ahead of the PS3, and if Sony wastes time and shows up late to the next generation they might just be pushing themselves farther from the market in the US than they have already. I dont think they have a chance in hell to beat the Wii in sales, and if they beat the 360 it wont matter to MS anyway since they've achieved their goal of taking a large chunk of Sony's US market. Sony practically let them have it this time anyway, a console built with technology that was not really ready for gaming they only slowed their progress. But Sony did insure a format win for the MOVIE aspect and they ultimately won it with numbers. Studios saw there are x number of PS3's that are potential blu-ray players compared to only a few HD-DVD players. In the end Blu-ray is better for movies, but Sony took a major hit to the gaming division in the beginning to insure that win.
Chris at 6:54pm 10th March 2010 Sure they update the Ps3 a lot. But its a major pain to do so, the updates are frequent and usually take up to 25 minutes a piece because of poor implementation. The updates are usually minor and rarely include visible changes. The 360 on the other hand has a few console updates a year, 1 usually major with plenty of new features, even an entirely new look to the console's dashboard. All of these updates are downloaded and installed in less than 2 minutes in almost all cases. 3D with blu-ray is a nice update, but has nothing to do with the gaming aspect. Even the Wii gets firmware updates, but if you want to see this generations best use of updates look to Microsoft, theyve done it right.
Dan Gaul at 9:49am 9th March 2010 See the last paragraph here:
http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/sony-...

It was announced at CES:
http://www.engadget.com/2009/12/17/blu-ray-3d-s...
curiousguest at 9:40am 9th March 2010 Hey how do you know that 3D BLURAY will "Just" be a firmware ad... from what I have been reading... it really doesn't show that... can you provide some links that confirms your comment? that would be great!!
Ian Bell at 9:31am 9th March 2010 I am really surprised by this. So basically this forecast is based on current trajectory, and the PS3 is just continuing to grow in market share compared to the other consoles?

Seems to me like Xbox 360 sales are still doing well.
1. Dylan at 7:15pm 13th November 2010 I hope so. The XBOX is such a pain.it has WAY less of an advantege that it is toatally useless. the PS3 deserves to be at the top for being THE BEST SYSTEM EVER MADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
dang at 9:14am 9th March 2010 The one thing I love about the PS3 is how they can keep updating the firmware on it to support new features. For example, 3D Blu-ray will be just an update from Sony. To me, that's well worth the initial buy-in.
1. ahah at 7:03pm 30th December 2010 yes it wii