If social media controlled the Oscars, this is who would win

How do you predict who will win the Oscars? Looking at 100 million different sources is one way of doing it. Social media scheduler and analytics tool Hootsuite recently analyzed millions of posts to pull together a prediction of the 2018 Oscar winners — or at least who social media users think will win this year’s awards.

Hootsuite compiled the data from more than 25 sources, including social networks as well as blogs, news sites, and forums, and ended up with data from more than 50 languages. The research tallied positive mentions for each nominee in five categories to predict the potential winners, comparing the percent of positive mentions with the other nominees.

So who does Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and the rest of the web think will taken home the coveted gold statue? For Best Actor in a Leading Role, Gary Oldman received the most positive mentions, with 53 percent. Oldman was nominated for his role in Darkest Hour. Daniel Kaluuya follows with 41 percent, Denzel Washington at 39.82, Daniel Day-Lewis at 38.88 and Timothée Chalamet at 38.31.

For Best Actress, Frances McDormand has the most positive mentions at over 48 percent for her role in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which was also nominated for Best Picture. Sally Hawkins followed with 42.65 percent, along with Saoirse Ronan (33.31 percent), Margo Robbie (26.49 percent) and Meryl Streep (21.53 percent).

For Supporting Actor, social media users favor Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World (63.39 percent), followed by Sam Rockwell (53.6 percent), Richard Jenkins (35.2 percent), Woody Harrelson (20.71 percent), and Willem Dafoe (13.88 percent). For Supporting Actress, Allison Janney leads the predictions at 50 percent for her work in I, Tonya, followed by Lesley Manville (46.85 percent), Laurie Metcalf (44.88 percent), Mary J. Blige (36.18 percent) and Octavia Spencer (24.15 percent).

The analysis also looked at the nominees for Best Picture, with Dunkirk leading the pack at 51.39 percent, followed by Call Me By Your Name (46.62 percent); Lady Bird (39.87 percent); Phantom Thread (36.89 percent); Darkest Hour (35.81 percent); Get Out (34.22 percent); The Shape of Water (31.2 percent); Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (31.04 percent); and The Post (15.2 percent). The most discussed movies, however, don’t always correlate with the positivity score — Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had 211 million mentions, followed by Call Me By Your Name (109 million), The Shape of Water (97 million), and Lady Bird (95 million).

Social media may be a good prediction of popular opinion but only the official announcements at the Oscars on Sunday, March 4, will see just how well social media users can predict the winners.